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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Crimson Ghost who wrote (2181)	11/15/2003 1:37:29 PM
From: philv	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

I agree with you, but many are worried about a collapse in the housing market and/or equities market which is deflationary to say the least. But the Fed has said many times in many ways they will keep interest rates down. This is necessary to prevent a collapse, and at the same time they are masking true inflation. But when looking at the price of commodities, especially oil and gold, there is already a lot of inflation, and more to come in my opinion. Commodities are valued in US dollars, and I am in the camp which believes the dollar will continue to decline, and debt will continue to grow. And the Fed will not ease up the printing press until they are sure the economy can take the shock of interest rate hikes. It is getting a bit far out, but very high inflation in the future is not improbable.

To: Crimson Ghost who wrote (2181)	11/16/2003 12:38:59 PM
From: Real Man	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

I think record expansion of credit and credit derivatives is holding bond vigilantes in check. This is the biggest bubble ever, so the consequences will be dire. I think total US debt is around 36 Trillion, while the total notional value of credit derivatives is 150 Trillion. The first number is higher than the World GDP. The second number is horrible. Bubbles have to expand at increasing rate, or collapse. It's a question of when, not that it will happen at some point