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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Real Man who wrote (2230)	11/16/2003 5:52:16 PM
From: Wyätt Gwyön	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 110194

Do you have a link to some data to support your statement hey now: it's always amusing when somebody makes a statement without any links, etc., but then when somebody else contradicts them, they want a catalogue raisonee... you can read about Walmart in Grant's, and read about the PPI in Weldon (his Friday issue trashed the PPI). as for a real yield on the 10yr of 5.7% based on the (slightly, only slightly, tongue-in-cheek) "Walmart CPI" (i incorrectly wrote 5.2% earlier; but i meant add 4.2% nominal yield to 1.5% deflation in Walmart SKUs) being above average, there are numerous sources on historical real yields. i suggest "The Triumph of the Optimists" as a comprehensive source. btw, Grant also had a discussion a few weeks ago of the long-bond-bullish Hoisington piece that has been making the rounds. also btw, i do not mean to suggest that our current situation is monolithically deflationary. we all know that things like health care and housing are very inflationary. but there are real and very significant deflationary forces which imo should not be ignored. also, the end-user inflation that we see is mainly in services, and if you look at a place like Japan, their deflation started with goods and took half a decade to wend its way into services.