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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Real Man who wrote (2264)	11/17/2003 9:06:58 AM
From: Wyätt Gwyön	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

I did post links to PPI, I believe. below is the text of your post to which i responded, in its link-free entirety. perhaps you posted links elsewhere, but so did i--elsewhere. in any case, getting back from the meta-argument, i think you might now concede my point that your "inflation rate is about 8% now" statement is not a proper characterization of the current environment. nor, by extension, is your extrapolation that the real yield on the 10yr is negative 4%. i would submit that your conclusion (Once you get a runaway inflation (already happening)) may be rather opposite of what is actually happening--once one strips some of the headline numbers down to their components and looks at rate-of-change trends (just as people like to trash GDP growth because of hedonics, they should be equally skeptical of the face value of headline inflation numbers and such, and should explore possible causes and their sustainability). i do not profess to be able to do these things well myself, and this is precisely why i do not mind paying a few K a year for informed commentary. M., inflation rate is about 8% now, calculated as an average of the PPI increase since Oct. 2002. This means, rates on 10-year are about -4%. Some folks may just wake up to this at some point. The Fed is idolized. Once you get a runaway inflation (already happening), this idol will fall, and we'll get a derivative nightmare. They are supposed to ensure price stability, at any cost. Yet, now they are just doing the opposite - ensuring the bubble, at the cost of price stability.