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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Real Man who wrote (2269)	11/17/2003 9:28:23 AM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

Tbills up big this am. In the binary world of US, until the safe havens are knocked out of the water, if one anticipates falling US stock markets, being short Tbills makes no sense (at least to me). M

To: Real Man who wrote (2269)	11/17/2003 9:34:35 AM
From: Wyätt Gwyön	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

You can calculate arithmetic average of that data. ach, the dreaded "average". i know some people who are convinced they are going to retire rich by buying stocks on margin because the "average" market return is 11% since 1926. an average is different from the current rate of change and (more importantly) direction of same. i can calculate the average yearly temperature here in TX, but that will not tell me whether to wear short or long sleeves. just to get the ball rolling, what does your average tell you about the current rate of change, and the direction of the ROC, and a historical comparison of this ROC against like environments in the past? what does your average tell you about the component weightings of PPI appreciation, and factors affecting their directionality and sustainability? what does your average tell you about the degree of correlation between these components and ROC trends in income growth? about correlation between CAP-U, and specifically CAP-U components with large PPI increase weightings, and the policy rate? the list goes on and on. "There are more things in heaven and earth, Horatio, Than are dreamt of in your philosophy." again, i would suggest a reconsideration of methodology before jumping to the conclusion that the spot yield on the 10yr--one of the world's most liquid benchmark securities--is negative 4% real based on an arithmetic average.