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Biotech / Medical : Elan Corporation, plc (ELN) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Qualified Opinion who wrote (5119)	11/17/2003 1:56:34 PM
From: biostruggle	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 10345

I'm troubled by the AZ data. If the entire 300 patient study reveals similar results, that is patients whom generated ab were protected from further cognitive loss, then I can not understand why Wyeth-Elan are not pressing forward with AN-1792. A severe 2% side-effect with a disease that permanently destroys the mind is totally acceptable. CAncer patients take drugs with higher side-effect profiles and with less effect on disease progression. AN-1792 was in Phase II and should go to phase III, if these results hold. The so-called new vaccine and MoAB are years behind, even if they started Phase I now.

To: Qualified Opinion who wrote (5119)	11/17/2003 2:11:49 PM
From: Cacaito	Respond to of 10345

Same group (Nitsch)published in Nat Med. 2002 Nov;8(11):1270-5. Epub 2002 Oct 15. The critics complain that 6 out of 10 of the low antibodies subjects suffered severe deterioration and that eschew the data. very funny, cause the recent "great lipitor news" 0.4% decline in atheromas vs increase 2.7% with pravachol is considered wonderful. Precisely, the vaccine non only improved the subjects, BUT PROTECTED FROM FURTHER DECLINE. Of course, the critics could claim that chance did it, 20 out of 30 had the high antibodies titer and got better, 10 out of 30 got the low antibodies titer and got worse. The only critic I could find plausible (worrisome if true) is that the antibodies titer levels have nothing to do with the vaccine, but due to chance, cause the study is still blind INCLUDING the 30 they presented. Nitsch and his group are reporting using a surrogate effect attributed to the vaccine, it could turn out that it had nothing to do with it. In this report they are talking about 60 subjects, probably the whole Zurich subgroup of patients including the ones pending 1 year follow up, that should be ready along with the total 360 subjects of the full trial by 12/03 or early 2004. Even better, the trial was like 4 to 1 ratio, 300 vaccinated vs 60 non vaccinated, the final results will be clearcut, the PLATFORM THEORY works or does not, and so far it seems to be it works !!! Dr Nitsch is already reporting that they are observing the same positive effects in the 60 subjects cohort, now We have a bigger piece of the puzzle at hand! If Elan spins out the Az program as a different start up, it will command on its own (with current trials and reports) at least half a billion dollars in the market. I think the market will start giving an added valuation to Elan for the Az program soon !!!