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Biotech / Medical : MedImmune -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: tuck who wrote (263)	11/19/2003 4:45:13 AM
From: A. Edwards	Respond to of 416

ML AM Call 11-19-03 Morning Call: Merrill Lynch is casting a vote of no confidence and downgrading MEDI to Neutral from Buy citing a lack of visibility of future FluMist sales and a lack of confidence in management to create shareholder value...

To: tuck who wrote (263)	11/19/2003 9:25:07 AM
From: rkrw	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 416

35,000 sold, target 2M! What a diaster! MedImmune Can't Create Shareholder Value Forbes Staff , 11.19.03, 9:01 AM ET NEW YORK - MedImmune (nasdaq: MEDI - news - people ) was downgraded to "neutral" from "buy" by Merrill Lynch, saying "we have lost confidence in management's ability to create shareholder value." The research firm said that so far this flu season, "MedImmune has sold just 35,000 doses of FluMist," significantly below Merrill's prior projection of 2 million doses and its original estimate of 5 million doses. FluMist is a flu vaccine administered as a nasal mist. Merrill said the shortfall was due to reasons including FluMist's high price, late direct-to-consumer advertising, physician economics and misperceptions. Merrill said "there is likely to be a negative perception for the company for the near and intermediate

To: tuck who wrote (263)	11/19/2003 9:35:39 AM
From: IRWIN JAMES FRANKEL	Respond to of 416

Hi Tuck, >> This is already a fairly expensive drug to produce? Just asking, I don't know. In the recent CC on the reduced FluMist guidance the company commented on cost. They stated that at 10M doses the cost dropped to $10 per dose and at 20M the cost was $5 per dose. (I have no basis for comparison to other vaccines so I can't say that is expensive. Anyone know?) They also indicated that the flu vaccination market is 80-90M doses per year in the US. So there is room for much higher unit sales. I suspect that flu shot volumes are much higher for the elderly (FluMist stops at 50 years, I think) and so far they are not to get FluMist. They are also very cost sensitive. ij