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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Real Man who wrote (2324)	11/18/2003 12:49:42 PM
From: Jim Willie CB	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

currency moves slowly, gold moves slowly the October JYen breakout punctuated the TBond revolt last summer not puncture, but punctuate, as in accentuate give it time are you like the tens of 1000's of other tech investors who proclaim a volcanic force as powerless unless it happens within 6-8 days, or 6-8 weeks? I am not since October, gold has been expected to retest 350 levels it did not and silver did retest the 475 levels so the JYen event not only gave precmetals a strong hand push, its course has yet to run out by January, you may wish you had restated your words they seem very impatient, eh? / jim

To: Real Man who wrote (2324)	11/18/2003 2:23:33 PM
From: Wyätt Gwyön	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

the yen carry trade was a lot more popular than gold carry trade. Yet another reason for the big dump of treasuries no. first of all, the Yen Carry Trade was ended by Greenspan when he lowered the policy rate 13 times. why would somebody short 0% yen to buy 0% dollars? that's not a carry trade; it's pure speculation. secondly, Treasurys are HIGHER today. now it's the Dollar Carry Trade, where traders borrow USD to buy, e.g., short end of AUD curve. a carry trade requires a yield differential. that's what pays the cost of "carrying" the short leg of the trade. there is currently almost no carry differential between JPY and USD short ends, hence no reason for carry trade, as i see it.