To: Sig who wrote (11789 ) 11/18/2003 6:06:55 PM From: im a survivor Read Replies (2) | Respond to Pretty simple. Market got waaaaay ahead of itself. That along with lousy earnings, lousy economy, terrorisim and etc.....brought market crashing down.....waaaay oversold late last year....now, again, we have seen a slight improvement in the economy, but nothing to go crazy about and better earnings, but again, nothing to get excited about. Factor in the gains since last Dec, and the fact earnings are not coming in smashing estimates, and we are now overbought and ahead of ourselves. It's a cycle that was, is and always will be present in different time frames. Waay oversold, waaay overbought and some in between. Right now, we are still overbought, imo. Not saying things wont go higher, as if world events and economy get better, earnings continue to get better then we should, in the future rise above current levels. But, in the here and now, we are ahead of ourselves. Averages are up a very nice % for the year and individual equities, if you were in the right ones are up phenomenal %'s, and even the laggards are up 15 - 20%........so, until economy shows signs of improvement and world events stabilize and earnings get better, the cycle should dictate that we are currently overbought and will head down, until the above objectives are met and the cycle can head us back up. How far down? I have no idea, but I see alot of profit taking in the weeks ahead and I think the shorts know this will be happening and will exsaperate the fall...which, if you have cash to buy and are looking more then a year ahead, is actually a good thing. I still need a good whacking to buy back stuff I sold for very nice gains on the way up, cheaper then when I sold. So, a good whacking could be a good thing, as long as we rebound after the whacking and dont pull a japan and go into a 20 year lull.
