Is this really a problem for Bush? I don't think so. Momma may be pissed at the fact that her Husband is deployed for so long. But her Husband is proud of what he has done, and really angry at the Media for the way they have reported it.
CAMPAIGN 2004
Iraq duty testing families' loyalty to GOP
Military families' complaints about extended deployments and rising casualties in Iraq may pose a threat to Republicans' grip on their votes.
BY PETER WALLSTEN
Miami Herald
With her 34-year-old son Cesar guarding oil fields and training Iraqi police, Patsy Martinez of Sebring anxiously awaits his safe return -- and stews over the decisions that left her son and his National Guard comrades in danger in an endlessly extended tour.
In Tampa, Susan Barka has taken over the mortgage business of her fiancé, a National Guard specialist who stands watch at a checkpoint outside Baghdad. In nearby Pinellas Park, Diane Plomatos fears for her 19-year-old son, who was shipped to Iraq months after his high school graduation and whose homecoming date remains unclear.
All three supported President Bush's responses to the Sept. 11, 2001, terror attacks, but now they represent an unexpected pitfall for the president's reelection next year: the fed-up and fearful families of U.S. soldiers.
''I've always voted Republican,'' said Barka, 35, whose fiancé, Jake Perez, has spent most of the past year at a checkpoint searching for explosives. ``But as far as the presidential candidates go, I'm going to be listening long and hard to what they've got to say about these long deployments.''
For years since the Vietnam War, soldiers and their families have been considered loyal Republican voters. That was true when Bush was elected in 2000, as his lawyers fought to ensure that thousands of military overseas ballots would be counted during the Florida recount, while Democrats moved to exclude them for late postmarks.
Both sides knew Bush would garner much of the military vote. But just four years later, that assumption is changing.
MAKING VOICES HEARD
Military families are beginning to speak up, complaining about the lack of supplies such as bulletproof vests for their loved ones and, in some cases, lack of food and clothing for reservists and guardsmen. Mounting casualties, including the deadly Black Hawk helicopter crash over the weekend and the death of a Tallahassee guardsman last week, are adding to the anger.
A new antiwar group, Military Families Speak Out, is expressing its frustrations online and in letters to generals, elected officials and leaders of the National Guard. A letter posted on the site, signed by South Florida parents and sent in September to Florida Guard officials, threatened a hunger strike if the troops were not brought home soon.
''These soldiers have now been away from our homes for eight months, away from their children, wives and parents, away from their universities and jobs, involved in a guerrilla war in an unknown country, not knowing the culture or the language of the place, menaced by mines, bombs and guns, risking their lives 24 hours a day, standing in their uniforms and carrying their equipment in temperatures of up to 130 degrees,'' the letter said.
Conclusive data on the voting intentions of military families is scarce, but some recent surveys back up the growing anecdotal evidence.
BACKING DEMOCRAT
A September survey of registered voters nationwide, conducted jointly by a Democratic and a Republican pollster, found that just over one in three respondents claiming to be a military relative approve of Bush's performance and think he should be reelected. A plurality, 45 percent, would back a Democrat in the race.
Another poll, the National Annenberg Election Survey, found that support for the Iraq war is dropping among military families. From October to November, the number of people who have lived with someone in the military and believed the war was ''worth it'' dipped from 57 percent to just less than half. The number who felt it was not worthwhile rose, from nearly 40 percent to nearly half -- the classic definition of a swing bloc.
''The almost automatic expectation that the Republicans had, that this was a constituency they could count on, no longer pertains,'' said Andrew Bacevich, a retired Army colonel and professor of international relations at Boston University.
RETHINKING VOTE
''I don't think anybody in the military thinks that George Bush is somehow maliciously pursuing policies that are contrary to them,'' Bacevich added, ``but I do think the perception of overstretch or miscalculation in Iraq, the stories of resources being distributed in a way that vets are being shorted in favor of other priorities . . . are causing military people to rethink how to vote.''
Bush campaign officials and top Republicans say the president will get credit in the end for his leadership, from military families and the rest of the public. But experts note that the administration has sought to soothe feelings in recent weeks.
Under fire for failing to acknowledge soldiers' deaths and attend memorial services, Bush addressed the matter on Veterans Day, noting that ``Americans are deeply aware of the current military struggle and of recent sacrifice.''
The Pentagon has begun outlining troop rotations, and many reservists and National Guard troops now look forward to coming home in early spring -- well before Bush faces voters in November.
Gov. Jeb Bush, commander in chief of the Florida National Guard and the chairman of his brother's reelection effort in Florida, pointed to those homecoming dates when asked about the families' frustrations and the potential damage to the president's campaign.
''It's quite understandable that families are distraught that their loved ones have been spending more time than what they've anticipated,'' the governor said. But, as for the politics, ``It's not relevant. They're just happy their loved ones are coming home.''
DEMOCRATS GAIN?
Still, Democrats believe they are poised to benefit.
Several of Bush's potential challengers have created aggressive outreach programs to court soldiers' families and veterans.
Retired Army Gen. Wesley Clark has based much of his early war message on the treatment of troops, attacking the administration for failing to send enough soldiers to Iraq. In Arizona last week, Massachusetts Sen. John Kerry, a Vietnam veteran, promised to increase benefits to military families and safeguard pay and benefits.
Back in Florida, National Guard families await their loved ones' homecomings -- but remain skeptical.
Plomatos, mother of 19-year-old Jason, says she flips the channels and reads the news intently ``because I don't really feel that the government is giving a realistic picture of what's going on.''
COMMUNITY EFFORT
Martinez, an elementary school teacher, is devoting much of her time to collecting supplies for a school in Iraq that Cesar is helping rebuild. It's a community project in a conservative Central Florida town in the heart of a key region for Bush's reelection.
''I don't question why we're there or why my son went,'' Martinez said. ``But these National Guard boys, these families are being hurt.''
Martinez and her husband are helping their daughter-in-law and two grandchildren, who recently lost their health insurance and salary from Cesar's civilian employer, who agreed to pay through nine months of deployment.
Martinez says she voted for Bush in 2000. But, she adds, ``I'll think twice next time.''
© 2003 The Miami Herald and wire service sources. All Rights Reserved.
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