Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Wyätt Gwyön who wrote (2352)	11/18/2003 6:41:01 PM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

exactly. just what i said regarding the inflation head-fake from commodities: if you look deeper, you will see that a lack of pricing power (reflecting a lack of consumer buying power, which reflects a lack of income growth) means contracting margins. as margins contract, capacity is eventually idled. hence low Cap-U. hence more: deflation. think of deflation as a disease which can spread throughout the economic tree. You and I and Heinz and a few others see this for what it is. All the other chicken littels are screaming inflation which is based on China's needs not ours, and a rise in POG which is as much fear based and anti-USD as it really is a sign of inflation. No pricing power, no jobs, no inflation (except in food, commodities, and medical expenses etc). That "worst of both worlds" (stagflation now) is extremely deflationary over the long haul IMO. The next MAJOR move in interest rates is down (assuming we raise first which is not a given). If we do not raise first then obviously the next minor move is down casue there is not much room left. Either way, Japan here we come. M