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Politics : Idea Of The Day -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: IQBAL LATIF who wrote (45022)	11/19/2003 6:14:33 PM
From: IQBAL LATIF	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 50167

Excerpts from "Tech knowledge"----FUTURE WINNERS? The equipment makers that we think could potentially benefit from volume deployments of fiber connections are Alcatel, Advanced Fibre (AFCI), and Corning (GLW). We expect Alcatel, a major integrator and supplier of broadband passive-optical networks, to be a primary source of fiber equipment. Its strong position in the digital-subscriber line (DSL) access market is also a significant competitive advantage. We believe that Advanced Fibre, which already benefits from its interoperability with Verizon's support network, is well-positioned to win a portion of the fiber-to-the-home pie. Given Advanced Fibre's relatively small revenue base of $300 million per year, a sole-source contract with Verizon would significantly improve the Advanced Fibre's financial profile. Optical cable will likely be a leading indicator of future fiber deployments, as the fiber must be installed in the network before the transport equipment. Given Corning's leading North American optical-fiber cable market share, we see it capturing a significant amount of the available fiber-to-the-home market for optical fiber and cable-related interconnect hardware. TRIPLE PLAY. Each stock has jumped this year, driven partly by hopes that the outfits will capture fiber contracts from the Bells. Alcatel has shot up 193% so far this year, to $13.04 as of Nov. 12, and Corning has more than tripled, to $11.69. Advanced Fibre has climbed 43%, to $23.87. We at S&P have a 3 STARS, or hold, recommendation on the trio of equipment makers. For the Bells, fiber to the home offers enormous bandwidth carrying capacity, with estimated data speeds of about 100 megabits per second, vs. roughly 1.5 megabits per second for current standard DSL service. The higher speed will allow phone-service operators the ability to offer triple-play revenue-generating services consisting of voice, high-speed data, and broadcast video. We believe the Bell at the forefront is Verizon, which plans to deploy about 1 million lines in the first year by building fiber on its existing infrastructure (See BW, 8/4/03, "Verizon's Gutsy Bet"). Most of Verizon's plant is aerial, making this buildout cheaper than for the other carriers.