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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: russwinter who wrote (2403)	11/19/2003 10:53:02 AM
From: Crimson Ghost	Respond to of 110194

I am long junk bonds yes, but not much longer I think.

To: russwinter who wrote (2403)	11/19/2003 10:59:45 AM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 110194

I think this WOZ mentality most are suffering from comes from the extreme interference with market forces that has gone on so long, especially under the Greenspan regime. You start to think it's normal. I don't believe it's normal at all, it's abnormal, an economic oddity, and that's how history will view this depression when it hits. The Greenspan monetary approach will end up in the trash bin with other crackpot theories. Unfortunately the whole world will pay the price. I agree 100% with this statement, and greenspan is to blame for sure. When no one has any money to buy things (no jobs) the solution sure as hell isn't to make the job situation worse by tightening rates and killing housing. That is a fundamental issue that you have NO answer to! You are seeing the affects of a reckless greenspan problem 100% for sure. He is obvioulsy TRYING to inflate himself out of a bad problem. Since he is TRYING to achieve inflation I would suggest that his results are mediochre at best. Also China's demand for commodities is unsatiated and US interest rates have no affect on that. Greenspan is RECKLESSLY trying to inflate himself out of a mess and the result will be an even bigger DEFLATIONARY crash. It is amazing to me that very few here can see that. The recent statements from the FED hawks shows they are now very worried about DEFLATION not inflation. One can not ignore that switch IMO. M

To: russwinter who wrote (2403)	11/19/2003 11:55:13 AM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 110194

Inflate this. money.cnn.com Wal-Mart kicks off toy price war Wal-Mart Stores Inc. is cutting prices on a number of hot toys earlier in the holiday season than such sales are normally seen, according to a published report. The Wall Street Journal reports that a survey conducted by Banc of America Securities found that Wal-Mart's prices of 15 popular toys were 12 percent lower than those of Toys "R" Us, the largest stand-alone toy retailer, and 8 percent lower than prices at discount retailer Target, the nation's No. 2 general retailer after Wal-Mart. The Journal says that Toys "R" Us executives have acknowledged that the Wal-Mart price cutting has caught them somewhat by surprise and was among factors hurting its recently reported third-quarter results.

To: russwinter who wrote (2403)	11/19/2003 1:12:28 PM
From: ild	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 110194

He predicts that a crisis will eventually result from the enormous federal budget deficits and lack of fiscal discipline that are part and parcel of the Bush economic policy. Deficit reduction in the 1990s, Rubin feels, was the "threshold act" that triggered "the sustained, robust recovery of the 1990s." Today, though, Rubin is quite certain that eventually the huge deficit will push up interest rates on 10-year Treasuries from the current 4.5% to 7.3%. Jot down his arithmetic rule for future use: For every rise in the deficit equal to 1% of gross domestic product, figure that long term interest rates will rise by 0.4%. There will be more crises coming from unexpected directions as well, Rubin believes, because support for market-based policies and trade liberalization are waning. The former Treasury secretary's views on the stock market aren't exactly unique. But they're still valuable guideposts. For instance, watch the ratio of total market capitalization to dollar GDP. When it gets far over the average of 50%-- as it did in 2000 when it was a sky-high 181%-- it's time to be wary. "Even a careful and highly disciplined investor can't see a market bottom any more easily than he can see the top," Rubin writes. In 1973, he bought some stocks he considered cheap. But they lost another 50% of their value by the market bottom in 1974. Listen up readers. Rubin warns that "No one is very good at predicting the direction of the market in the relatively near term." Not even Robert Rubin. forbes.com