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Strategies & Market Trends : Strictly: Drilling II -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: steve susko who wrote (33789)	11/20/2003 3:32:26 PM
From: nspolar	Respond to of 36161

Yes, I was unavailable much (nearly all) of the last two days, during the day. It also was not time for a trade, imo. Watching the comp here, if it breaks the 1875 area it is possible it goes quite a ways (down). Right now the probability is pretty good imo that it does that. USPIX in some ways is not a bad play here yet, one would just have to watch and get out if it goes the other way. It is too early to chart an EW worth a chit, but one thing possible is that an impulse down started on the 13th, and today we finished the ii and started the iii of that impulse down (i.e. it is still in a 1 of that down). The comp then could easily drop another 200 points of so, before a real nice rebound, and a lot of the daily stuff in the middle would be just noise. Note this is just a possibility at the moment, need more data. It isn't without some justification however - the weekly TA parameters on the comp look to me at the edge, and if they break down, this scenario would then happen. A down market should start in somewhat benign fashion imo, and a lot of bulls should be dip buying, which I suspect they are doing.