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Strategies & Market Trends : Classic TA Workplace -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Shack who wrote (86236)	11/20/2003 8:13:28 PM
From: The Freep	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 209892

<<I think the simplest count on my daily or 195-min charts is that we're into a 5th wave here so you may be right anyway. >> I see that possibility, too, Shack... but I'm having trouble seeing it on the S+P. It made that new high last week, and the count from the top there doesn't look like we're going into 5 down. I don't actually know what it looks like, but it could either be the start of 3 down, or maybe just a C down. There's overwhelming consensus on the boards I've read that we have a down open/morning and then rally back up. And hey, on some basic TA stuff, that makes a ton of sense, too. We're like 40 points from a tag of the lower BBand on the dow. You wouldn't expect us to go crashing through it. Still, I'm curious how you'd count the S+P here, cuz it's the one index that gives me some "crashing through" potential. the freep

To: Shack who wrote (86236)	11/20/2003 8:37:55 PM
From: ajtj99	Respond to of 209892

I've been looking for the 5th wave since Tuesday, so looking at today's action it appears we may have nearly finished the 3 of 5 down off the 1448 high last week on the NDX. I anticipate a low in the low to mid 1350's tomorrow. As for what this means, who knows. You could maybe even count this as a huge 4 all the way back to June for all I know. I do know for the last 8-months bears have been punished when they've been bearish when the markets are this oversold. I also have a couple of things that I key in on to tell me when a big trend change to down has happened, and none have rung yet. I do know one fact (yes, that's arrogant). When we are this close to a bottom and this oversold, if you buy the day's close, you will be able to sell the following day at a profit. Go back and check it since March. It's uncanny. Furthermore, when Les' scans show the 10-day new highs on the NDX at 0 or 1, you're within 1-day of a low or low close.

To: Shack who wrote (86236)	11/20/2003 8:50:56 PM
From: ajtj99	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 209892

From the KISS school of charting, here's a monthly NDX chart that may tell us all we need to know: stockcharts.com[h,a]maclyyay[de][pb20!b50!b200!c13!c20!c50!i!d20,2!f][vc60][iub14!la12,26,9!lg!li10,10!lh5,5!lp14,3,3!ll14][j6471081,y]&listNum=1 A monthly close below that rising support and you've possibly got the end of your "C". If we close below say 1387 or so this month, we'll be below that rising support. If we open around 1430 in Dec, we'll still be above that line, and we'd have to gap up 43 points if we closed Nov at the bottom of that line to make 1430 in Dec. The Dec. range appears to run from 1430-1485 inside that wedge. The wedge in January appears to start around 1490 and go to 1530. NDX 1530 is one level I've been watching as a possible blow-off high. I have an indicator that flagged this as the next high (well, actually COMP 2065, 1530 was interpolated from that). Anyway, that's a short take here from the monthly NDX.