Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : Nokia (NOK) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: elmatador who wrote (26054)	11/20/2003 9:45:53 PM
From: Eric L	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 34857

Paradigm Shift: GSM Growth in the Americas Once an ANSI-41 Fortress, Technology adoption has changed dramatically in the Americas. * AMPS is diminishing rapidly. * IS-136 TDMA growth is slowing dramatically. * CDMA growth has slowed. * GSM growth is accelerating significantly. * There were 25.6 million GSM subscribers in US and Canada as of September 30, 2003. * There were 15.2.million GSM subscribers in Latin America as of September 30, 2003. * There were 40.8 million GSM subscribers in the Americas as of September 30, 2003. * This compares to 101.8 million CDMA subscribers in the Americas and 108 million IS-136 TDMA subscribers. * The CDMA subscriber base in the Americas break down this way: North America 70.4 million Latin America ¹ 30.4 million · ¹ This number includes CDMA subscribers in the Caribbean and Mexico · GSM in the Americas · GSM Subs GSM Subs Net 1 Year 09/30/02 09/30/03 Adds Growth · USA & Canada 15.40m 25.59m 10.19m 66.1% Latin America 6.17m 15.17m 9.00m 145.8% All Americas 21.57m 40.76m 19.19m 88.9% · Digital¹ Mobile Wireless in Latin America · Subs Subs Net 1 Year 09/30/02 09/30/03 Adds Growth · TDMA 55m 64m 9.1m 16% CDMA 24m 30m 6.4m 29% GSM 6m 15m 9.0m 146% Total 85m 109m 24.5m 22% · ¹ Excludes the significant remaining AMPS base in the Americas · Digital Mobile Wireless in the Americas · Subs Subs Net 1 Year 09/30/02 09/30/03 Adds Growth · TDMA 100m 108m 8m 7.8% CDMA 83m 101m 18m 21.5% GSM 21m 40m 19m 89.1% Total 206m 251m 45m 21.9% Actual growth of GSM in the ANSI-41 Americas stronghold YoY, not just % growth, exceeds all other technologies for the first time this year, and that trend is highly likely to continue. Anatel's 1800 MHz spectrum decision and the introduction of GSM-850 into the traditionally ANSI-41 oriented Americas in 2000, the successful commercialization of GSM-850 in 2002, and the introduction of GSM-1800 in 2002, contributed significantly to this paradigm shift in technology adoption in the Americas. 3GPP's focus on moving the standardization of GSM-EDGE (EGPRS) and its commercialization from back burner to front burner by carriers and vendors in 2000 also contributed. The catalyst for this whole series of events was the decision by AT&T Wireless with DoCoMo backing in November 2000 to flip from a TDMA-EDGE migration path to WCDMA, to a GSM migration path to EDGE and WCDMA. Pyramid Research which follows Latin America closer than any other research house, forecasts GSM, which was the last of the 3 major digital technologies to enter Latin America, to overtake TDMA in 2006 and CDMA in 2007. Their forecast for a Latin American subscriber base of 170 million (up from 81 million in 2001) end of 2008 breaks down as follows: GSM Family 44.3% CDMA Family 31.1% IS-136 TDMA 23.8% Analog AMPS 0.8% Hopefully I have transposed, cross footed, and calculated the numbers above from 4 different sources above without error. If anyone spots an error please advise. As a close, 3GAmericas published a press release today: GSM Shows Impressive Growth of 89% in the Americas 3GAmericas Rio de Janeiro November 20, 2003 3gamericas.org 3G Americas reports that GSM is clearly the fastest growing technology in the Americas with an overall annual growth in the region of 89% from September 2002 to September 2003, accordingly to EMC World Cellular Database. In Latin America alone, GSM grew by 146% over that same time period, compared to 29% and 16% growth rates for CDMA and TDMA respectively. GSM's growth has been remarkable in Latin America's two largest markets: Brazil and Mexico. <snip> Globally, eight out of ten new digital mobile customers worldwide chose the GSM technology in twelve months following September 2002. GSM also accounts for 78.96% of global new customer growth in the third quarter alone with more than 48 million new GSM customers of the 61 million total new digital customers worldwide. In the past twelve months, GSM has globally added more customers than the entire customer base of any other mobile wireless technology. <snip> Best, - Eric -