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Strategies & Market Trends : Classic TA Workplace -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: ajtj99 who wrote (86244)	11/20/2003 10:48:40 PM
From: The Freep	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 209892

AJ -- I agree odds favor a low tomorrow (coulda even been today's close if it weren't the pesky triple bottoms). Still... The drops off our tops are usually about 8 days? Well, if that's true, the S+P is only in day 6 tomorrow off the 1063 high. I don't know how you're counting it, but I can't see how tomorrow is day 8. What am I missing? Tomorrow is the 8th day off the 1448 NDX top, including that day. But unlike the last few NDX tops, we closed at 1448 that day. So the selloff started the next day. In the prior two tops on your chart, the NDX sold off on the day of the top. This means that if selloffs are 8 days, we bottom Monday. Also, if one uses the PRICE high on the NDX, we are past 8 days (that day was a day we hit a high and sold off, by the way). Tomorrow would be day 11. Is that a fib or is 12? That would point to Monday. There's great similarities between this selloff and the one in September, it's true. A few key differences though -- closes under the 50 dma AND the break of the March uptrend line. It's possible both are meaningless. However, if you're officially talking "trend" isn't it true that we broke the March uptrend? So wouldn't that mean that, until price proves otherwise, we are now in a downtrend? If we are now in a downtrend -- which we can argue that we are -- then we'd expect different behavior on Les's scans and on stochastics, etc. Wouldn't we? After all, in the first few selloffs after the March bottom, we did have a different pattern than we'd had for months before: cuz the trend had changed. Mostly for me, though, the wildcard here is the S+P. That selloff from the highs could finish at any time, but I cannot find a count that says it would finish with a moderate new low tomorrow. If we do (and hey, it's possible and maybe even probable), perhaps the count will become clearer. Still, this is why I asked you specifically about the S+P... and why if you think we bottom tomorrow cuz we're 8 days off the top, then you really better re-evaluate! the freep