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Politics : WHO IS RUNNING FOR PRESIDENT IN 2004 -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Glenn Petersen who wrote (6704)	11/21/2003 12:11:17 PM
From: American Spirit	Respond to of 10965

Can You Approve of a Guy, But Not Re-elect Him? Another important number pollsters look at is the "re-elect" number -- the number of people who say they would vote for the president if the election were held today. This number, more than any other, could signal trouble for the president. In recent polls, the president's job approval rating has been higher -- sometimes significantly higher -- than his re-elect number. For instance, in the most recent Newsweek poll, conducted earlier this month, registered voters were asked: "In general, would you like to see George W. Bush re-elected to another term as president or not?" Forty-four percent said yes and 50 percent said no. Yet no major poll has ever put job approval at 44 percent or below. "We've always said that we expect this to be a very close, very contested election," said Bush campaign spokesman Terry Holt. "But the president has some specific strengths: He's viewed as a leader, as someone who cares about the American people, and as someone who cares about the economy and the war on terror .... Whoever the Democratic nominee is, he's already locked himself into a high-tax, anti-war mode." Holt raises a legitimate issue. The 2004 election will not just be about Bush's popularity in a vacuum. It will also be about the alternative voters have to consider. Polls asking people whether they would vote for Bush or a "Democrat" next year are about even. In an NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll released this week, 43 percent said Bush while 40 percent said a Democrat. But the difference seems to grow in Bush's favor when you compare him to individual candidates. For instance, in the Post/ABC poll from a couple weeks ago, Bush led individual Democrats from 6 to 15 percent when matched up in hypothetical contests. He does his worst against Sen. John F. Kerry (D-Mass.), whom he beats 50 percent to 44 percent (Washington Post-ABC News Poll, Sunday, November 2, 2003). The biggest advantage Bush held over his Democratic rivals was between Bush and Dean, with Bush up 54 percent to 39 percent. Washington Post