Gay marriage looms large for '04
By Susan Page
USA TODAY
Massachusetts case could be a wedge issue along the lines of 'Roe' ruling
WASHINGTON -- Gay marriage is now poised to rival abortion as an issue that inflames and divides American voters.
The 4-3 decision Tuesday by Massachusetts' highest court recognized a right for same-sex couples to marry. One conservative activist calls it ''the starting gun'' for a debate that pits cultural and religious traditions for one side against principles of equality for the other.
The repercussions have the potential to energize millions of conservative Christians in next year's elections, exacerbate the political polarization evident in 2000 and make it impossible for leaders in either party to downplay the issue.
''It could very well be as big an issue as Roe v. Wade,'' says John Green, a University of Akron political scientist who studies the intersection of politics and religion. The 1973 Supreme Court decision in Roe established abortion rights and has provoked a fierce debate ever since. Gay marriage sets up a similar conflict between rights and values.
The issue is likely to be problematic for Democrats. While polls show an overwhelming majority of Republicans oppose gay marriage, Democrats are split. Some analysts say support of gay marriage or civil unions could be a ''wedge'' issue that separates moderate voters from Democratic candidates the way school busing and welfare reform once did.
A senior Democratic strategist, speaking on condition that he not be identified, says Democrats haven't figured out how to finesse an issue they expect Republicans to use as a ''hammer'' next year -- not only in the presidential election, but also in contests for Congress and state legislatures.
There are complications for Republicans as well. ''If Republicans become too harsh in their language, it creates an appearance of intolerance, which is not attractive to swing voters,'' Republican pollster Whit Ayres says, although he says the problems are greater for Democrats.
President Bush has sidestepped questions about a constitutional amendment that would define marriage as between a man and a woman, and advisers have said in the past that he has had no appetite to make the issue a priority. One other factor that White House aides say has had some impact: Vice President Cheney has an openly gay daughter who runs his campaign office.
'The ultimate litmus test'
The White House delayed making a statement on the court ruling for more than six hours Tuesday. Bush's travel to London may have been one reason, though communications with Air Force One are instantaneous.
''Marriage is a sacred institution between a man and a woman,'' Bush said in a brief statement issued in late afternoon. ''I will work with congressional leaders and others to do what is legally necessary to defend the sanctity of marriage.''
Including a constitutional amendment? White House spokesman Trent Duffy replied, ''I would just let the statement speak for itself.''
That calibrated comment probably won't satisfy conservative Christians, who are up to 40% of the Republican base.
''This is going to be a great divider and the ultimate litmus test,'' says Sandy Rios, president of Concerned Women for America. ''We have a freight train coming down the pike, and a federal constitutional amendment is the only way to stop it.'' If Bush fails to take the lead, she says, ''I think that conservative evangelicals will stay home'' on Election Day.
''The president, I hope, recognizes that there are two wars raging: one in Iraq and the other a battle over our culture and our values,'' says Gary Bauer, president of American Values. He is a co-founder of the Arlington Group, a coalition of evangelical Christian and other conservative organizations that has been meeting since July in anticipation of the Massachusetts decision.
Advocates of gay marriage are equally impassioned. The decision ''will enhance the lives of thousands, maybe tens of thousands of Massachusetts citizens and will have no negative effects on anyone else,'' says Rep. Barney Frank, D-Mass., who is openly gay.
The Human Rights Campaign, an advocacy group for gays, has begun buying newspaper ads that show gay couples as neighbors and parents.
A Pew Research Center poll on attitudes toward homosexuality, released Tuesday, found that 78% of voters who favor Bush's re-election oppose gay marriage. That sentiment is likely to be reflected in the GOP platform next year, says Ed Gillespie, the Republican national chairman.
Among those who want to see a Democrat elected in 2004, however, there is no consensus: 46% favor gay marriage, and 48% oppose it.
That helps explain Democratic presidential candidates' own careful statements:
* ''Although I am opposed to gay marriage, I have also long believed that states have the right to adopt for themselves laws that allow same-sex unions,'' Connecticut Sen. Joe Lieberman said.
* ''While I continue to oppose gay marriage, I believe that today's decision calls on the Massachusetts state Legislature to take action to ensure equal protection for gay couples,'' Massachusetts Sen. John Kerry said.
* ''I do not support gay marriage, but I hope the Massachusetts Legislature will act in a manner that is consistent with today's . . . ruling,'' Missouri Rep. Richard Gephardt said.
Former Vermont governor Howard Dean's statement mentioned his history on the issue: ''I was proud to sign the nation's first law establishing civil unions for same-sex couples.'' That bill was enacted after a Vermont court sent the issue to the Legislature.
A broader battle
The Massachusetts court also sent the issue to its Legislature. But the decision is sparking a national reaction because it is viewed as the most dramatic step in what critics see as a concerted challenge to traditional values.
Advocates for gay men and lesbians have been heartened by a series of developments this year. The U.S. Supreme Court struck down an anti-sodomy law. The Episcopal Church ordained an openly gay bishop. A Canadian appeals court ruled that it was unconstitutional to deny same-sex couples the same marriage rights as opposite-sex couples.
But each of those events caused controversy, and surveys show that there has been some backlash. While Americans are increasingly opposed to discrimination against gays, 59% now oppose gay marriage, according to the Pew survey, up from 53% in July. Nearly one in three say greater acceptance of gays and lesbians would be bad for the nation.
The Pew survey found that attitudes were most negative among members of evangelical churches. They were most positive among young people.
Next year, gay marriage may well be a ''wedge'' issue, says Elizabeth Birch, executive director of the Human Rights Campaign: ''It will take much longer than a year for the American people to give this thought and consideration.''
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