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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Bid Buster who wrote (67516)	11/21/2003 2:25:33 PM
From: Real Man	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 94695

Well, you just have to look around you at the history of crises in other countries. When you have a country with a huge accumulated trade deficit, you have a potential currency collapse and hyperinflation on your hands. We are not alone - Stephen Roach sees it coming. morganstanley.com "In the end, it’s the only solution that macro can really offer: An unbalanced world needs a realignment in relative prices. As the most important relative price in a US-centric global economy, the dollar had to fall. And that’s exactly what has been happening over the past 21 months -- an 11% decline in the “broad” trade-weighted dollar index (in real terms) since February 2002. The risk, in my view, is that there’s a good deal more to come on the downside. It’s not just economics that drives me to that conclusion. It’s also the world’s faith or, in this case, lack of faith in its reserve currency. I fear there is a tear in the fabric of confidence that underpins the special role of the dollar -- a tear that is now getting larger under the stresses and strains of an unbalanced world."