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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Return to Sender who wrote (12601)	11/21/2003 7:19:57 PM
From: Donald Wennerstrom	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95597

RtS, As I am sure you are well aware, both MTSN and CMOS are volatile stocks and they have come a long way since last October and March. They fell very hard prior to last October so they had a lot of bounce in them - just like many of the other stocks in the Group. While both stocks look good on the monthly charts you presented(most other stocks in the Group also look good on that scale), the daily action of each chart hasn't been all that good lately. Both are down about 15 percent from their highs earlier this month. That in itself may be OK since a lot of strong stocks are also down during this past pull back, but the question is - how are they going to do going forward. If you look at the analyst consensus data, both stocks are not as "good looking" as many others in the Group. CMOS still has negative earnings(only 1 of 2 stocks in the table with this dubious characteristic, the other is EGLS), and MTSN is sporting a next year's PE of around 65 based on 0.22 cents in in next year's earnings. The PEG is over 3, one of the worst in the table. Having said all of the above, both stocks may go on to do very well, but I think they have a lot of anticipation already priced into the stock. Their earnings have further to go than many of the stocks in the Group to justify their present prices, let alone possible future price increases. I am updating the tables in the next few posts based on today's closing prices. From that you will be able to see the status based upon today's closing prices. Don

To: Return to Sender who wrote (12601)	11/22/2003 10:36:27 AM
From: robert b furman	1 Recommendation Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95597

Hi RtS, OK you asked for it.GG Here's my "Add To" Favorite:Cohu stockcharts.com[h,a]daclyyay[pb200!b50!f][vc60][iUb14!La12,26,9]&pref=G It has had the anemic pop and is now bottoming on its Macd ADX says it hasd more downside to go. RSI should also fall to more oversold. I'm looking to "add to" when it reaches its rising 200 moving average ( currently @ 18.20). They've indicated a breakeven quarter for Q4.I expect they'll defer any volume of sales out to Q1 04 and blame Fasb 101. In Q2 ,03 they sold their old facility and moved into a new facility 3 times the size of the cramped old facility.This has enabled them to move their east coast operation and their Columbus operation (both aquisitions from past years)all under one roof. They incurred a 7.9 million dollar gain on the sale of their old facility and have been writing off inventory and acquisition impairments in an effort retain the cash made on the sale.They paid cash for the newer facility from a company that was fending off bankruptcy. I expect their growing backlog to be miraculously filled in Q1,04. The obsolete parts that get written off,often get sold and reported on one of those really strong quarters that happens well into the stocks price rise.It makes one wonder how strong their margins can get!! They have NO DEBT and $108,000,000 in the bank - about 5.00 + a share cash.They own all their facilities - debt free. Last but not least they have poured millions into R&D during this downturn.Their past record suggests, they can create new testhandlers that create new segments and/or gain market share in established sectors.The next huge market opportunity is busting into the Dramn memory makers of Asia.Historically Advantest has been dominant here. They are the sole testhandler for Micron (acquired Daymarc who served Micron). I believe their new "edge" testhandler has been well received (in the memory sector) and the Summit has been upgraded to provide better cooling of the chips - which cements their lead in Pick and Place testhandlers for "Logic"(Microprocessors - Intel). Additionally they have shipped their first Test On Strip (TOS) testhandler which checks chip performance before the chip is encapsulated (an efficiency/yield upgrade process). To make a long story short I'm expecting institutional support to come in around its 200 day moving average.The last dip to the 200 was on October 24.Cohu's low for the day was about 10 cents above the actual 200 day moving average. That makes 18.30 a good buy if you are the anxious type or 18.10 if you want to steal it.GGG JMHO Bob Last but not least I like/prefer the back end of this business.While 300 mm provides much more yield per line,it still requires more testers and testhandlers to digest the increased unit count of the 300 mm production lines.So the demand for their equipment will be robust as all these 300 mm lines come into production. The unit count of chips is already at 2000 levels - therefore the growth cycle of testhandlers has already begun. This is a neat ,often not thought of, niche.Everyone loves the frontend as it is so techie.The backend has a very nice niche that is often overlooked. As Don rightly points out, Cohu is much less extended.I think the burying of the 7.9 million dollar gain on their real estate gain has given them a laggard stock price and an exceptional value for a Niche leader. siliconinvestor.com Bob