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Strategies & Market Trends : Strictly: Drilling II -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: jrhana who wrote (33806)	11/22/2003 7:47:26 AM
From: jrhana	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 36161

Great stuff from the Patch <And BTW, personal attacks and baiting other posters is prohibited here> Message 19517898 Take a look in the mirror big guy. I mean pot calling kettle.... No-what he really is is great theatre. I mean you got to hand it to the the Patch. He's got chutzpah: <Chutzpah is a Yiddish word connoting brazenness. A federal court in the Northern District of Illinois noted in a decision a couple of years ago that chutzpah means shameless audacity; impudence; brass. Leo Rosten's The Joys of Yiddish defines chutzpah as a Yiddish idiom meaning "gall, brazen nerve, effrontery." But neither English translation can do the word justice; neither definition can fully capture the audacity simultaneously bordering on insult and humor which the word chutzpah connotes. As a federal district court in the District of D.C. noted in 1992 that chutzpah is "presumption-plus-arrogance such as no other word, and no other language can do justice to.'' Perhaps the classic "legal" definition of chutzpah is the closest; a person who kills his parents and pleads for the court's mercy on the ground of being an orphan.> jlaw.com

To: jrhana who wrote (33806)	11/22/2003 1:29:53 PM
From: SwampDogg	Respond to of 36161

That is very interesting considering the ABX announcement. ABX has some pretty important political connections and Russell may be on to something here.

To: jrhana who wrote (33806)	11/22/2003 2:36:44 PM
From: nspolar	Respond to of 36161

jr, I think the charts are saying the same thing. If you go look at individual pm equity charts they say that most of next year should be good, very good. There are an awful lot of issues just getting started w/r to longer term retraces. An awful lot. If you look at things like Barrons GMI and the K ratio, there is no indication of a top. There is as much indication that these indices have perhaps 30% upside to go here, maybe more. POG - I don't have any really longterm charts at ready disposal, but I suspect if POG breaks the 400/420 area there is little resistance to a much higher level. Likewise if POS breaks 5.50 silver stocks are going to rocket, imo. The HUI. I've been publicly charting it to indicate it is in a 5th. However a reasonable alternate is that it could be still in a 3rd. All this w/r to the wave that started in March. It is safest for me to play it the conservative way, but I do have an alternate strategy. If it is still in the 3rd, it is going way over 300. The alternate strategy and count appears to align better with equity charts. In edit. Here are LT gold charts. kitco.com

To: jrhana who wrote (33806)	11/22/2003 3:03:01 PM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 36161

Gold COTs cftc.gov Non-commercials are the large specs (MUFUs hedge funds etc) Non-reportables are the small specs Commercials are the commercial For the record, Commercials are not going to have to cover that short interest. Commercials are of two classes 1) those that produce gold. 2) those in the industry with a vested interest in it e.g. jewerly makers, industrial users, etc. Even non-hedgers like NEM or GG are going to sell current production via futures. After having studied this mess for a long time, I see all this ranting about "cartels" and commercials that will be "forced" to cober if gold hits 325, 350, 375, 400 etc etc etc etc. Well DUH..... Nem is not going to be forced to buy back the gold it is selling each and every month that causes it to be short futures. Get real. As for commercial group #2, that group is long and can not be squeezed either. Finally there is not much of a "Cartel" left when Barrick announces no more further hedging (selling forward), and JPM the other supposed "Cartel" member predicting the POG to be 415 by year end. If there was a "Cartel" led by Barrick and JPM, it has been busted. Now is there a "Cartel" led by central bankers? I leave that up to you to decide. If you want to understand price action, perhaps look at Non-Commercials. Those are the big boys. The MUFUs or hedge funds that are long or short the stuff. They are long by 136,229 to 43,069 contracts. They increased their longs by 11,000 contracts. Who might get squeezed here? Well perhaps it is the idiot hedge funds that are short this stuff (the 43,000 contracts as well as another 26,000 contracts short by small spec idiots). That is where the action is IMO and those two groups are indeed subject to squeezes. Periodically you also see some hedge fund or MUFU (perhaps looking to buy more stuff lower), run stops to the downside, or someone else run stops to the upside. In the meantime everybody and their brother is watching for that huge short interest in the "commercials" to be FORCED to cover when it is unlikely to ever happen. DOH! I have not seen this analysis offered anywhere else by anyone, but I believe it fully explains why there is almost NO sustainable correlation between commercial short interest and POG other than periodic happenstance. PRODUCERS are not going to cover what they are trying to sell. They might (if short interest gets high enough in the MUFUs hold back sales if they do not like the prices they are getting but Producers in general are always going to be short). JPM or Fidelity or whoever would not be a commercial, but a Large spec. I have no idea whether or not they are long or short, but in predicting a POG of 415 perhaps JPM is a late believer in the gold story. Mish

To: jrhana who wrote (33806)	11/22/2003 3:08:28 PM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 36161

What is capping gold (at the moment) is a rather large block of calls sitting on 400 that is holding down the price. Lets see what happens after expiry. IMO the best case is that price gets suppressed for one more day and then takes off. M