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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: mishedlo who wrote (67540)	11/22/2003 6:13:13 PM
From: Real Man	Respond to of 94695

Cause rich folks can borrow at low rates and short the dollar. This even happened to Yen in 1995, resulting in the carry trade. US has a record trade deficit. Japan is an entirely different animal - they were dealing with trade surpluses. They print, but the trade surplus compensates for it. The causes for hyperinflation are 1) large external debt 2) large trade deficit 3) The printing press Japan did not have it, but we do. I agree, there will be deflation. In China. Won't help here. The result for every country with large external indebtedness and trade deficit was the currency collapse. No, the reason commodities are going up is not China - if you look at CRB divided by the dollar index, then you'll see that it did not change all that much. The same applies to gold - since the dollar decline started, POG in Euro has been more or less stable. Increasing CRB is a direct result of currency depreciation.