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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Real Man who wrote (67543)	11/23/2003 12:41:00 PM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 94695

but if this is correct, then Comex gold should increase by the number of commercials contracts short, each month, as they deliver, but it does not seem to be happening. They sell a future, delivery is taken next month (that short is wiped out by delivery) they sell next month's production and the commercial net short position does not change much it just stays there. Commercial short interest will fluctuate by the amount of production, if they slowly unhedge, if they buy back hedges, if they do not like the current price and withhold gold from the market, or if jewerly makers bullion banks etc get more agressive about locking in rates. I do not know how to predict the net affect of all of those over time except perhaps to say that there will always be a net short position on average, based on the actual amounts of gold being mined and sold. If forward selling decreases over time (due to barrick) then over time that commercial short position will slowly drift down. M