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Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: KyrosL who wrote (120295)	11/22/2003 8:13:26 PM
From: Sig	Respond to of 281500

Re Buffets prediction. Too true. Evaluate and compare the threats 1. Another Nations nuclear missiles. Very low chance, each nation knows the missiles will be tracked back to the launch site. 2. A missille launched from a nation without knowledge of the authorities. Bad show, the nation will be in deep doo doo, so the leaders would take action to prevent it. All together chance of an incoming ICBM missile- very low. 3. Stolen Missile launched from a ship. Terrorists would like this one. Very expensive and complex operation tho,which is why its best to cut off funds to terrorists. A problem getting the missile or bomb, learning how to fuse or program it. Possible to steal one, but getting the operating manual is even more difficult. So chances still are low. 4. Dirty bombs. Nuclear waste spread by common explosive. Can contaminate an area the size of a city, perhaps very few deaths, but calling for a major and expensive clean-up before workers can return. A big psychological blow. Far easier and less expensive to get the materials. IMO terrorists will be pursuing this nuclear route first Use of radiation detectors on incoming goods can intercept some shipments. 5. Flying an aircraft into a nuclear plant. They are designed to take a strike from fully loaded 747 but am not sure that comes with a guarantee. The idiots may not believe that and try it anyway. I would rate our greatest immediate threat is from chemical or biological or just the plain old every day cheap truck bombs. Meanwhile the top dogs at Al Queada will be doing long range planning for another major hit on some important symbol of the US. The Statue of Liberty, the Sears Tower, a nuclear aircraft carrier, the GG bridge, etc Thats if they are permitted to settle down. So its our duty to keep them on the move, poor, and vulnerable. Sig

To: KyrosL who wrote (120295)	11/23/2003 1:11:08 PM
From: Ilaine	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 281500

Living in the DC metro area, I agree that some kind of nuclear attack from Al Qaeda is a virtual certainty. But, it won't be TEOTWAWKI. TEOTWAWKI requires many, many multiples of nuclear weapons deployed more-or-less simultaneously. We're too decentralized and have too much redundancy built into our systems to be destroyed by even a real thermonuclear device deployed at ground level. It will be a tragedy for those at ground zero, and a massive inconvenience for others, but we'll keep going and hardly miss a beat. Americans pull together when tragedy strikes. It's amazing to me, what we do. We help total strangers as if they were members of our own families. It amazes me to see that this is NOT what happens in places like Iraq. Anyway, I've known you for 4 or 5 years, and you've never deviated from gloom and doom. Some people are just hardwired that way, and I think you're one.