<Did you ever ask yourself the most important question of all questions, under all circumstances and in every situation, and that is, ‘what if I am wrong?’>
Yes Jay, I have done that and that saved my bacon when Globalstar crashed totally and the Biotelecosmictechdot.com bust happened [which was actually what I expected but not to such an extent
and I thought it would happen 10 months earlier than it did].
Also, I expect to be wrong, constantly, but there is only a single state of existence we can select so I have to assume I am right, while avoiding things which are likely to go wrong. All living things do that. They have no choice. On the one extreme, they would live a life frozen in fear, taking no risk and thereby, ironically, taking a great risk. On the other extreme, they would take all risks, seek maximum gain and live a probably very brief but exuberant life though one in a billion might well make it through the slings and arrows of life to be the one to go on to reproduce and create a new realm of life. Somewhere between the two extremes is where the 'normal' gather and the nodes of life form their species.
I am definitely on the risk side of the distribution curve. But to compensate, I have better than average ability to detect, avoid, manage and benefit from risk. Maybe that places me on the low-risk side of the distribution curve. I am quite cowardly, so I suspect that's the case. I am amazed when I see the risks others take.
So, yes. I do expect to be wrong. I am pleasantly surprised if I am right. Which is a bonus to success. I feel very lucky when things go right. It's a kind of dual world for me. Figuring it out, thinking the plan should be right, expecting something out of the blue to wreck it, being surprised when it goes right, but simultaneously expecting it to go right all along. So every success is a narrow escape and a lot of fun and very rewarding. Each failure is the natural state of the world anyway so nothing to worry about.
99.999999999999% of living things have failed in life. They lived a brief flicker of random existence and their DNA chain was snuffed out. Remarkably, 1 in umpty trillion has made it through the impossible odds - having in an ever-developing chain of unbroken DNA, handed down for eons, parents to child, never losing. Against such impossible odds, there you sit right now, gazing into cyberspace, hoping to improve your chances of continuing the unbroken chain, for at least another few decades, using your conglomeration of mutual self-defence neurons to try to overcome the randomness of the process by bending your surroundings to your will, rather than being blown like a dandelion seed to land in whatever soil chance might offer.
You can't escape the 99.9999999999% odds arrayed against you without a great deal of luck. But you have no choice but to try. Not trying brings on early failure.
So, being wrong and expecting to be wrong is built into the process. Anyone not expecting to be wrong is bound for disappointment. The pleasure of success is what should surprise.
So, in a long-winded way, yes, I am prepared for the eventuality and likelihood and even metaphysical certitude of being wrong. But perversely, I also expect to be right, coming from an unbroken chain of DNA which has been right for a billion years. That's what I'm designed for = being right, not random and purely lucky, like a dandelion seed blown in the wind.
<<<We are running a never-before experiment>>
… Let me give you a hint … most experiments fail.
<<We are in uncharted waters. This is boot-strapping writ large>>
… stop talking sexy. I am already very excited from contemplating these concepts >
Jay, do you really think I could seriously think that a real-time, globally integrated, never-before experiment isn't the most wildly dangerous adventure? Surely you know that I know that uncharted waters are where ships sink and survival enters the realm of the lethal. Boot-strapping is extremely difficult if not impossible, requiring reversal of gravitons and reconfiguration of the natural world which is why the expression exists.
To run a boot-strapping, globally-integrated real-time experiment in uncharted waters is not a sure recipe for failure, because while 99.9999999999% of such endeavours will fail in the long run, one will succeed. That's us Jay! This is life and we're in it.
6 billion smart and increasingly scientifically, technologically, socially and biologically capable beings who have been filtered through a 99.99999999999% sieve are off on an uncharted, boot-strapping, real-time experiment. Why on Earth should you be nervous about that? We have always succeeded. Which is why we are here.
So I'm surprised that you think I'm unaware that some experiments fail.
As I explained, we now have elastoquidynamic financial engineers like the amazing Alan Green$pan KBE building robust financial structures in which We the Sheeple can conduct our infinite array of trades. No longer do we have to sit around the markets all day with a few yams, chickens and pouch of gold, bartering, swapping, selling and having fun. A few clicks these days in a global market and the trades are done.
Uncle Al has built the financial equivalent of the Three Gorges dam to tame the natural world which gives no end of grief when left to itself. Not only is life made safer, it's made easier and more powerful. Literally in the case of the Three Gorges power supplies.
You worry about debt. But debt is like negative numbers in engineering. Positive numbers are for tribal people using fingers and toes numeracy systems to count their gold and silver coins. Uncle Al KBE has moved on from negative numbers to imaginary numbers too.
With some mystical incantations, some mathematical equations, running real-time in cyberspace, he has conjured up an amazing financial system where the future can be lived today. Go ahead. Borrow to your heart's content and your balance sheet will allow. Live now. Work tomorrow. Enjoy the experiment. It can't fail.
If it does, there will be grinding of gears, gnashing of teeth, implosions of balance sheets and TeoTwawki with all the nasties that implies and as you have described for 3 years. While I wait, I'll go on enjoying the Biotelecosmictechdot.com revolution. I suspect I'll wait a long time. That's the plan. Nothing can go wrong. We have nothing to fear but fear itself.
Always right,
Mqurice
PS: I can understand that you would drool and the prospects, rub your hands with mercenary glee. I am not surprised that people carried along in the vast experiment would be terrified as they peer down from a great height, like living on the top floors of the Twin Towers while being scared of heights and some maniacs go on building the thing higher and higher, boostrapping the thing to the sky. These are great engineers and the Twin Towers of Dollar and Debt can surely withstand any storms or other onslaughts. Okay, it's true that the Twin Towers aren't actually there any more, but can you really imagine that happening to Uncle Al's well-built structure?
I happen to be right now about 1.5 metres above ground in Rangataua, in a little house with nothing above and while there is a volcano nearby, Ruapehu, it is quiescent and I am out of range anyway by a few kilometres. So I suppose it's fair to say I am a coward, not believing my own words and avoiding life at the top of the Twin Towers. True. You can't expect me to take excessive risk, just in case I am wrong. |
