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Politics : Politics for Pros- moderated -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Lane3 who wrote (17459)	11/23/2003 6:36:20 PM
From: LindyBill	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 793725

Declining population means declining productivity, Karen. You may say, "so what?", but the countries involved don't. All modern industrialized countries face the same pension problems also. Just saying, "well, its a flawed program," doesn't change the facts. Here is a summary from one survey. Governments in the most advanced industrialized countries have been aware of the implications for some time, especially the implications it will have on national pension systems, health care and the work force. To just maintain their current pension systems for the next twenty years industrialized countries will have to move the retirement age up to 80 (which would correspond demographically to age 65 in 1936).3 And, to maintain national income levels mass immigration (or super human productivity rates) would be necessary. (To maintain their current working age population, Japan would need over 600,000 immigrants per year for the next 50 years.) These issues are so politically sensitive that the problems have never been addressed to any real extent. These problems may come to dominate the politics of developed countries in the next 20 years and will have strong impacts on organizations. ....This is not to say the demographic landscape couldn’t change in the interim. The Japanese could start having more babies and the U.S. fertility rate could fall. However, if the current scenario continues, based on population demographics alone, in 2050 you could find a youthful, energetic and diverse U.S. population versus an aging and inward looking Europe and Japan, as well as a matured China. It is often said that the 21st century will be the Chinese and Asian century. That may very well turn out to be true. However, the U.S. could well become even more of an economic and military power than it is today. These are demographics that certainly need to be taken into consideration by governments and businesses alike. marubeni.co.jp