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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Return to Sender who wrote (12625)	11/24/2003 11:19:37 AM
From: Sampat Saraf	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95573

Don, Any ideas on SEMI? This stock may not have participated in big up moves yet.

To: Return to Sender who wrote (12625)	11/24/2003 12:00:59 PM
From: Sam Citron	Respond to of 95573

10:25AM Semiconductor survey supports thesis that recovery well under way -- SG Cowen : SG Cowen comments that the 2003 SG Cowen and E.B.N. Semiconductor Purchasing Survey of semiconductor purchasing managers supports firm's thesis that the cyclical recovery is well under way, driven by improving business across all end-markets. This will likely be boosted by restocking of historically low inventory levels as end-demand and lead times stretch. The survey suggests that business is improving, supporting thesis that a cyclical recovery began in late 2002, and should produce growth of 14% in 2003 and 20-25% in 2004. Total inventory levels remain at historical lows -- a 20-year low of 8.3% of sales vs. the 20-year trend-line of 11.5%. The survey suggests that sustainable semiconductor inventory levels are 5% of revenue or more, yet firm's recent inventory report estimates that the current level is 2%, below the 20-year trend-line of 3%. www.briefing.com

To: Return to Sender who wrote (12625)	11/24/2003 9:19:46 PM
From: Donald Wennerstrom	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95573

Since we have just been discussing CMOS of this thread, here is an input from today's Briefing.com <<12:02 ET ****** Credence Systems (CMOS) 15.57 +1.32: Credence Systems is scheduled to report Q4 EPS after the close. Reuters Research prints consensus Q4 EPS at ($0.34) on revenue of $53.1MM (+22.9% Y/Y) and Q1 of ($0.22) on $60.5 (+64.9% Y/Y); F03 EPS of ($1.41) on revenue of $178.3MM (+8.6% Y/Y) and F04 EPS of ($0.25) on $301.2MM (+68.9% Y/Y). We would look for modest upside and a bright demand picture, in light of recent order activity for test equipment, showing accelerating top-line growth beyond the 60-70% Y/Y growth projected for F04. Valuation On an inverted DCF/EVA basis, assuming aggressive balance sheet management and 20% operating margin (approximately 8000 bps improvement in gross and operating margins), CMOS' valuation implies management must still grow revenue in the low-30% range over the next 8 years beginning in F06 in order to support current valuation; an alternative scenario, also assuming aggressive balance sheet management and 20% operating margin, is revenue growth in excess of 100% over the next two years, followed by low-teens growth in the remaining out-years. On a price multiples basis, CMOS trades at 5.5x F03 revenue of $178.3MM and 3.3x F04 revenue of $301.2MM. Summary CMOS shares are cruising ahead of fundamentals. Part of the gross and operating margins improvement, as implied in our model, will simply be a function of improved economies on strong industry top-line growth. Nevertheless, management will still need to aggressively a) grow CMOS' top-line significantly ahead of the industry average, b) manage the balance sheet and c) control operating expenses in order to grow cash flow to a level that justifies current valuation. To that end, before initiating a new position, we would look for confirmation that recent order activity supports an acceleration in top-line growth beyond the 60-70%+ Y/Y growth projected for F04, and that management has a firm timetable for margins improvement and a clear path to profitability, or until at least a 25-30% pullback.--Ping Yu, Briefing.com>>