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Politics : Idea Of The Day -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: IQBAL LATIF who wrote (45071)	11/25/2003 1:56:36 AM
From: IQBAL LATIF	Respond to of 50167

Profits, But No Cash- Even without a whiff of fraud, corporate earnings results include a lot of noncash items, such as receivables, payables, depreciation, amortization and one-time adjustments, either charges or gains. But a company that's profitable on paper may not be meeting its regular operating expenses. Wall Street's favorite cash-flow measure — Ebitda, or earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization — is supposed to track this. But Markowski says Ebitda excludes too much relevant information. "The accounting scandals show it's not a reliable indicator," he says. By contrast, operational cash flow — based on the cash-flow statements companies file with the Securities and Exchange Commission — looks only at the money actually moving in and out of the company each quarter. How is this computed? Take their net income, add depreciation and decreases in payables back in, then subtract increases in receivables and inventories. That leaves cash flow from operations, or operational cash flow. Markowski simply takes this number and divides by outstanding shares to arrive at OPS. The result is often nothing like Ebitda. For instance, StockDiagnostics.com notes that IBM (IBM) recently hit a nine-year high in operational cash flow, while posting a three-year low in Ebitda. The key to OPS is that it takes away one big trick some companies use to bolster their earnings numbers: accrual accounting. This technique allows companies to book receivables (money owed to them) as revenue, before they actually receive the cash. The problem: IOUs can't be used to pay real operating expenses. And if a bankruptcy forces a customer to renege on or dramatically reduce payments, the company never will recoup that money. When companies count too many chickens before they're hatched, it can be disastrous — for them and for their shareholders. Markowski has come up with a simple way to identify potential blowups before they happen. He takes companies that are reporting big profits and examines their operating cash flow. If OPS turns negative compared with the year-ago quarter, it's time to bail out of the stock. "In 99% of the cases, [these] stocks are at all-time highs," says Markowski. "Everyone bids them up thinking everything is great, but there's no cash behind the EPS." Markowski calls this the EPS syndrome. On the Horizon Two companies Markowski considers worrisome are computer-systems designer Cray (CRAY) and Helen of Troy (HELE), a maker of consumer products. "The market is valuing them based on their indicated earnings," say Markowski, "but they don't have positive cash-flow multiples, because they are throwing off so much negative cash." On a positive note, StockDiagnostics.com sees the following components of the Dow Jones Industrial Average hitting multiyear highs of free cash flow. COMPANY MULTI-YEAR HIGHS OF FREE CASH FLOW Alcoa (AA) 7 years Coca-Cola (KO) 7 years ExxonMobil (XOM) 6 years Home Depot (HD) 7 years IBM (IBM) 9 years Intel (INTC) 2 years International Paper (IP) 7 years McDonalds (MCD) 7 years Merck (MRK) 9 years Microsoft (MSFT) 8 years Procter & Gamble (PG) 8 years SBC Communications (SBC) 6 years 3M (MMM) 8 years Wal-Mart (WMT) 8 years Of the Dow 30, only Altria (MO) and AT&T (T) are posting multiyear lows. The bigger picture? "Based on free-cash-flow multiyear highs," says Markowski, "we believe the Dow will make an all-time new high in the next six months. Because you have such a diverse group, and all these different parts of the economy are firing off huge cash-flow increases, that's going to bode well for the market." He calls this a very good leading indicator of the economy, because companies have the cash to pay down debt or buy capital equipment He also says that while the earnings of the S&P 500 are far below their July 2000 peak, free cash flow is currently at a record high. So while Wall Street analysts worry the index may be overvalued based on its P/E ratio, Markowski says it is exceedingly smartmoney.com based on its free-cash-flow multiples.

To: IQBAL LATIF who wrote (45071)	11/25/2003 8:55:38 AM
From: 2MAR$	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 50167

Love and tenderness are qualities of humanity, (while) anger and lust are qualities of animality. 2437 She is a ray of [the Beauty of] God;5 she is not a beloved. She is a creator; you may say that she is not created.6 Nice .... Do you think the prophet may have been speaking of Ishwara's consort --->Parvati ? I think so...shhhh , don't tell the clerics! freeindia.org ;-) When seeing women as the can truely be , and a man learns to sense the infinite wisdom of tenderness , then all men may become prophets ...if they can create enough peace within to hold the image . And the Buddhists call her --->TARA...a very able lady... on Par or greater than Allah. Yes I would say much, much greater than Allah. Mars PS: Everyone I shared with , was touched by your "Waiting for Allah" piece. Very good work mon , much more work to come ...but time will change all.;)

To: IQBAL LATIF who wrote (45071)	11/25/2003 11:09:53 AM
From: greenspirit	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 50167

Hi Ike, thought you would enjoy seeing this... Kashmir ceasefire - will it last? news.bbc.co.uk By Jill McGivering BBC World Affairs analyst The announcement by India on Monday that it too will sign up to a Kashmir ceasefire - and make Pakistan's unilateral offer bilateral - will be greeted with enthusiastic applause by the international community. A generation has grown up with militancy and the military The world is eager to encourage better relations, all too conscious of the threat of conflict between the two nuclear neighbours. Any hint of generous political gestures from either side is more reassuring to the outside world than the bursts of hostile rhetoric which usually characterise the long-standing dispute on Kashmir. But there's a definite sense of political brinksmanship. India has not only matched Pakistan's offer of a ceasefire along the de facto border in Kashmir, it claims to have trumped it by going a step further. As well as the Line of Control (LoC) it says, the ceasefire will also extend to the Siachen glacier, further north. Looming summits Whilst not wanting to give ground, both sides want to be seen as peace-makers and to appear in the eyes of the international community - especially Washington - as initiators of a positive political process. Maintaining troops in Kashmir is a strain on both sides' defence budgets Both want to foster an image that they're really trying hard to find solutions, despite having their patience tested by the intransigence of their difficult neighbour. But even if the motivations are more closely associated with international public relations than a genuine desire to settle long-standing differences, it is still good news. The atmosphere seems more conducive to progress now than at any time since the failed Agra summit in 2001. And it is considerably better than the dangerous descent into hostility 18 months ago, which nearly sparked an outright war. With an important regional summit, Saarc, looming in January, the focus can turn comfortably to other issues without business being overshadowed by fears of imminent threat from Indo-Pakistan tensions. More minor concessions, of trade and transport for example, have bolstered a sense that progress just might be possible. Melting snows Despite a change in mood music, though, the ceasefire is still a long way from a real breakthrough. Civilians take cover as an Indian soldier responds to firing Many analysts question how much of a concession each side is making. The areas involved are at high altitude. With the onset of winter, there's far less movement and fewer clashes. Crisis times for Kashmir usually erupt around May when the snows finally melt and the issue of militant infiltrations into Indian Kashmir reawakens. India accuses Pakistan's military of enabling militants to cross into Indian Kashmir by diverting the Indian military's attention with hostile onslaughts and offering fire cover. Pakistan denies this - but for the next few months, of frozen winter conditions and minimal movement, it's a largely academic argument. India feels the Muslim minority in Kashmir affirms its secular status A more significant test will be whether the ceasefire can endure when the snows do melt next spring - and if it did, what impact that had on India's reports of illegal cross-LoC movement and militant activity. In the meantime, there's no sign of movement on the fundamental issues of contention - such as India's allegations about Pakistan's continuing practical support of militants and Pakistan's denials. Until there is progress on those substantial but much tougher questions, it's hard to see how India and Pakistan can move forward to real negotiations on Kashmir and a permanent end to hostilities that can outlast the melting of the Kashmiri snows.