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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: mishedlo who wrote (2584)	11/24/2003 11:14:43 PM
From: Haim R. Branisteanu	Respond to of 110194

from the data coming out of BLS it seems that we have a crawling recovery and we may hit 3.5 to 4% GDP growth. Next we have an election year This will lower the TNX at least by 1.5%

To: mishedlo who wrote (2584)	11/24/2003 11:26:23 PM
From: Jim Willie CB	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

you kept repeating Fed Fed Fed only upset at the debate, and frustrated, not angry at you they dont control the long end, PERIOD I think you will be surprised at the 10-yr TNote yield soon it is not under govt control in any way shape or form I am sure we agree about much but not the pace at which the TENS will falter / jim

To: mishedlo who wrote (2584)	11/24/2003 11:46:30 PM
From: steve susko	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

what's your short term outlook for us equity? look like a push over dow 10000 and nasd 2000 and higher.

To: mishedlo who wrote (2584)	11/25/2003 9:36:18 AM
From: russwinter	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 110194

There really is only one group of people in control of US interest rate levels, beyond about six months. About 85% is determined Asian central bankers, and the other 15% by the Fed. Here are the datapoints that support my theory: Taking the last eleven weeks (Sept. 10 to Nov. 19) since the G7 meeting reset the yen, foreign central banks (mostly the BOJ) have purchased $60.955 billion in US debt (treasuries and agencies). The US Fed has purchased (monetized)$8.082 billion. Combined that's roughly $69 billion ($6 1/4 billion / week), or 30% of the $20 billion weekly (and rising) twin account balance and fiscal deficits that must be borrowed somewhere. I suppose it could be argued that if the Asian central banks decide to raise US interest rates, then the Fed will offset that by monetizing more themselves? But right now the Asians hold the chips in this game by a score of 85 to 15.