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To: Perspective who wrote (268666)	11/25/2003 2:22:57 AM
From: j-at-home	Respond to of 436258

great post

To: Perspective who wrote (268666)	11/25/2003 2:41:31 AM
From: stevenallen	Respond to of 436258

misleader.org The Bush Economic Record: Will Short-Term Gain Lead to Long-Term Prosperity or Long-Term Pain? The latest growth numbers have inspired comparisons by the White House of the "Bush recovery" of 2003 to the Reagan recovery of 1984, which Reagan rode all the way to re-election. ("Where's the Beef?" just didn't translate from burger slogan to political slogan.) While the White House touts the 7.2% third quarter GDP growth figure, experts are cautious. Economists are questioning whether the great news of last week genuinely represents the beginning of long-term job growth, as promised, or a temporary positive blast to be followed by more stagnancy on the jobs front. Early indications are that while tomorrow's unemployment picture will reveal a net positive gain, it will still fall far short of what's needed to significantly reduce the unemployment rate, or to truly begin to move the economy from recovery to prosperity. (See "Productivity Rises in 3rd Quarter; Weekly Jobless Claims Fall," Associated Press, 11/6/03) The President, of course, doesn't have control over much of the economy's performance. What Bush and his administration do control is how they spin the effects of their policies. And on this score, the President spin machine has inspired the creation of the Mis-Leading indicators. (http://www.misleader.org/pdf/misleading_indicators.pdf) Regardless of the President's unshakable message of happy days around the corner, the reality is that the Bush tax cuts have been an ineffective form of stimulus. The majority of Bush's tax cuts goes to the wealthy, and the wealthy pocket most of their tax breaks, unlike middle and lower-economic families. In particular, the 2003 "Jobs and Growth" package was heavily front-loaded (more so after it made its way through Congress) to encourage stimulus up front. That stimulus is now fading. While the short-term jolts of the "Jobs and Growth" plan fade, what's left is a decline in real wage growth and, more importantly, increased deficits that many experts worry are now structural in nature. On the eve of the release of October's unemployment figures, the positive growth numbers belie many other indicators that suggest we are not on the road to recovery. (report continues, see site if interested. They also offer a free daily "misleader")

To: Perspective who wrote (268666)	11/25/2003 11:41:41 AM
From: ild	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 436258

Date: Tue Nov 25 2003 10:50 trotsky (Winston@crack-up boom) ID#377387: Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved this is an interesting question - i'd say we can at least observe SOME indications that a crack-up boom is in progress. e.g. the sharp rise in commodity prices, and the runaway boom ( cum runaway credit creation ) in China, which has been egged on by the too loose monetary policies of the Western central banks. if it IS a classic crack-up boom it will end in utter disaster...the global monetary system probably won't survive. in this context look at Bonner's and Duncan's dire forecasts regarding the 'dollar standard'. i fear they are right - it is creeping closer to the end. and since the Asian export nations continue to act in mercantilist fashion to postpone the day of reckoning, one could actually argue that a complete systemic collapse is pre-ordained already. Asian dollar reserves are on a parabolic trajectory - and they continue to amass them at an ever increasing pace. since they won't stop doing this, it follows that the market will one day stop them. and one doesn't need to be a genius to realize that that spells 'crisis of hitherto unknown proportions', which is exactly how a crack-up boom is supposed to end. Date: Tue Nov 25 2003 10:21 trotsky (further on economic statistics) ID#377387: Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved it is also noteworthy in this context that NO-ONE appars to actually believe the lies anymore. Ure's web bots did a search after the Q3 GDP release ( the original 7.2% one ) , concentrating on sites that could be broadly defined as 'supportive of the current administration'. the disbelief expressed even there was of staggering proportions. however, an even better proof that belief in these phony data is waning can be discerned in the markets. for instance, the 52-week high in bond yields was recorded in early AUGUST, well before the release of the data. since the release, the stock market has made no net progress, while both gold and bond prices have continued to rise, and the dollar has continued to sag. it amounts to a forceful indictment. the government would do well to remember that confidence is easily destroyed, but it's exceedingly difficult to regain it. and this particular con-game is extraordinarily dangerous, since it not only risks being found out, but also induces producers as well as consumers to make wrong decisions, inasmuch as they base economic decisions on the false picture painted by the data. this further impedes the economy's structural soundness. Date: Tue Nov 25 2003 10:08 trotsky (Hambone, 9:16) ID#377387: Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved not only do i agree 100%, but it also needs to be pointed out that neither Q2 nor Q3 GDP data withstand close scrutiny. the composition of that alleged growth is in fact highly suspect, and testament to the misuse of economic statistics to paint a picture that is in stark contrast with reality. the same goes of course for the employment report, which is likewise best characterized as a bag of incredibly baldfaced lies. overall, the data released by govt. are so useless that it is quite surprising that economists pay any attention to them. what is even more surprising is that not a single mainstream economist thinks it necessary to actually analyze the data in detail and issue the requisite comments. are they merely lazy, or just stupid? or bought and paid for? it remains a mystery.

To: Perspective who wrote (268666)	11/25/2003 12:45:54 PM
From: NOW	Respond to of 436258

thanks BC and amen

To: Perspective who wrote (268666)	11/25/2003 12:59:39 PM
From: laura_bush	Respond to of 436258

Super post. Glad to have read it! / eom

To: Perspective who wrote (268666)	11/25/2003 1:58:23 PM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 436258

Well since a couple people PM's me to keep posting and a few other publically said the same thing, I will continue to do so. First with a light hearted post from my board on the fool. ...the donkey that was pulling the rocket launcher used against the targets in downtown Baghdad has been taken into custody... ...friends and relatives or anyone ASSociated with him were also rounded up and taken to undisclosed locations for "questioning"... the "coalition" dropped several 500 lb bombs in neighborhoods where donkeys were thought to be hiding... Cheney was quoted as saying that these were just a few donkey loyalist and that 66% of donkeys still support the coalition...

To: Perspective who wrote (268666)	11/25/2003 8:25:29 PM
From: broadstbull	Respond to of 436258

post more please, LOL.

To: Perspective who wrote (268666)	11/26/2003 11:56:37 AM
From: No Mo Mo	Respond to of 436258

OT - Sort of. Catching up on the past couple days. Indeed and bravo. We are supposed to be a self determined nation. Discussion of any and all public issues is an obligation, not something we should be spoon fed from a government and media that have agendas possibly contrary to our own. More specifically, public policy directly effects our investment decisions. The quality of our lives is, in many ways and for better or worse, determined in monetary terms. The actions of politicians and others who affect policy should most definitely be discussed as we try to navigate our own courses.