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Politics : Politics for Pros- moderated -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: KLP who wrote (17655)	11/25/2003 4:53:51 AM
From: LindyBill	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 793883

Declining turnout is top trend By Dr. David Hill The recent elections in Kentucky, Mississippi and Louisiana confirm the most important trend in American politics today: Politics holds less interest for most Americans than ever before. In the three closely contested gubernatorial elections, the estimated turnout in every state reflected a declining trend. In Kentucky, just 39.8 percent of the state’s registered voters went to the polls. The last time Kentucky had a truly contested gubernatorial election, in 1995, 44.4 percent of the registered electorate there voted. In Mississippi, poor record keeping makes it hard to assess the results. Something as simple as knowing the number of registered voters seems to challenge the secretary of state’s office. While an office spokesperson said there are 1.9 million registered voters, the secretary himself, Eric Clark, said that is high. So we’re forced to look at absolute numbers of voters. The Magnolia State had 819,000 voters participate in the 1995 gubernatorial contest, a record to that point. This time the latest returns show a few more voters, but the state’s registered base is much larger. Based on census data, we would guess that Mississippi has at least 100,000 more voters (perhaps as many at 150,000 to 200,000 more) than it did in 1995, so anything less than 850,000 would certainly represent a decline in the percentage of Mississippians voting. Historically, Louisiana has been a high-turnout state, especially for the South. But even Cajuns have lost interest. In Louisiana, fewer voters turned out for the November general election than turned out in the October open primary. And that primary saw turnout of 49 percent — 15 percentage points below the turnout in 1995, the last time there was an open-seat open primary to select a new governor. Those elections were not isolated numbers, either. In all three states, turnout in the 2002 elections was abysmal: 35 percent in Louisiana and Kentucky and 32 percent in Mississippi, at or near lows for the decade prior. The declining percentage of Americans voting defies the soppy sentiments expressed by many after Sept. 11, 2001. The conventional wisdom at the time was that the tragedy had increased patriotism and interest in government. All of a sudden, it was prophesied, Americans would be transformed from seeing government as something distant to being something we own that merits our participation and involvement. Optimists might look at the 57.5 percent turnout for California’s recall election as providing insight into the patriotism of American voters. But even the theatrical qualities of that apocalyptic election campaign produced a turnout only a few points higher than the regular 2002 California gubernatorial contest. Clearly the uniqueness of a recall and the presence of Arnold on the ballot made a significant difference, but how often can we count on a carnival-like sideshow, complete with a strong man, to pump up the vote? As one disheartened Cajun analyst pointed out, Louisiana had a high turnout of 80 percent when David Duke (R) faced Edwin Edwards (D) in the 1991 gubernatorial runoff, but how often can a state risk that sort of train wreck just to foster participation? No matter how you try to sanitize the numbers, since the 1950s the long-term trend in turnout for all presidential and most statewide elections has been downward. Many explanations are offered for this trend, too many to discuss here, but the larger question for political campaigners in the year ahead is the implication for campaign strategies. Less and less does it make sense to build campaigns around appeals to independents or “swing voters.” Most swing voters have dropped out of the electorate. Instead, there is an ever-increasing emphasis on simply getting out the base, prodding your partisan followers to the polls. In some key states, we just found, that’s harder than it sounds. Dr. David Hill is director of Hill Research Consultants, a Texas-based firm that has polled for Re-publican candidates and causes since 1988. thehill.com