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To: Archie Meeties who wrote (27429)11/25/2003 12:41:00 PM
From: Roebear  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 206178
 
Archimedes,
"1 in 100" winters we've had 3 out of last 10 might be closer to the new norm? I am.

I've considered it and rejected it, based on data indicating the North Atlantic Oscillation will be entering a decades long negative tendency over the winters.

Sure glaciers are retreating. What would one expect after a 3 out of the last 10 1 in 100 warm winters?? The earths weather system balances. One could make a case for more fresh water going into the oceans, salinity changes could interrupt the "Atlantic Conveyor", quickly starting a new Ice Age. I'm not making that case, but it is as historically feasible as "global warming".

Northern Hemisphere snow cover is increasing dramatically and along with other indicators, that means to me, a polar vortex is coming to sit for awhile somewhere over the northern US.

Remember the 1970's? No one talked about global warming then, they were discussing the possibility of a new ice age. Simply because the 15 or 20 years before had a lot of hard winters. Were the 1970's ice age predictors correct?

Obviously not. Just like the global warming folks are likely to be wrong now.

I'll go on record stating the next ten years are much more likely to have 2 of the top 10 "coldest in 100 years" winters than 2 of the top 10 warmest.

Best,
Roebear



To: Archie Meeties who wrote (27429)11/25/2003 5:53:45 PM
From: quehubo  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 206178
 
I have no reason to believe weather patterns have changed. I am betting a normal Winter within a 3-5% HDD.

Why are you considering abnormal Winters the new norm?