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To: orkrious who wrote (268723)	11/25/2003 12:56:20 PM
From: ild	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 436258

Date: Tue Nov 25 2003 12:32 trotsky (Hambone, 11:12) ID#377387: Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved you are of course right, but the politicians sure don't see it that way. don't forget, they are economically illiterate, and so are their advisors. and even if they knew what the long term damages of their policies will be, they'd STILL play the 'trade card' because it's a well-worn populist play - based on the fact that the population at large is similarly indoctrinated and has little understanding of economics. this is why the lessons of the past are ignored - political expediency. anyone who thinks that US jobs will be 'saved' because tarrifs are imposed on Chinese goods will learn the hard way that the exact opposite is going to happen. no macro-economic policy decision has merely a single, isolated effect - rather, it tends to have multiple effects which are spread out over time to boot. this latter point is important: for instance, Keynesian fiscal stimulus measures tend to produce imaginary 'growth' in the short term, which is a good thing if you're about to face an election. but incalculable long term harm is done to the economy - these effects will however only be felt after the election is already bagged, and by the time they occur, not a single mainstream economist will prove to be able to determine the cause-effect relationship. instead, other 'explanations' will be produced, a process that continues until it becomes clear beyond a shadow of doubt that a structural, long term problem exists ( this is the situation that now prevails in Japan ) . Date: Tue Nov 25 2003 11:04 trotsky (Winston) ID#377387: Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved i would not be surprised in the least if a bust in China became the 'trigger event'. China has become the new 'economic locomotive' of the world. btw., this underscores once again what a dangeorus game Shrubs is playing with his protectionist measures. you can rest 100% assured that the 'unintended consequences' of such measures will outweigh the 'intended' ones by a huge margin. it's a case of not having learned the Smoot-Hawley lesson.