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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: ild who wrote (2615)	11/25/2003 5:38:40 PM
From: yard_man	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 110194

(I'm banned from CFZ -- not that I want to post there -- but I noticed that you posted the energy pulse article) I've been reading the report referenced by the energy pulse article -- there are some interesting stats there ... here's one: >>To understand the effects of increased drilling activities, the NPC analyzed the supply response from the lower-48 states associated with doubling of rig activity in 2000/2001. There were limited opportunities in more prolific areas. Most of the additional drilling occurred in basins where low initial rates and low well recoveries were to be expected. Thus, the supply response was less than 5% of lower-48 production even with a doubling of rig activity. << For all the articles that I've read (bullish long term) -- I still have one missing piece -- all these articles claim that power generation is the largest growth segment of nat gas demand -- that has certainly been true in the last few years. Now their predictions have some moderation in the growth for the next 2-3 years, but then after that it picks up the pace again -- I'm wondering about the basis for that -- maybe I will get on EIA and see what they are saying Another thing I don't have a handle on is electric use sensitivity to GDP or GNP -- I believe the real recession starts next year and that this will have a real chilling effect on that growth in nat gas usage for electricity -- heating demand will probably continue to track, but I think they are overestimating electric demand part ... OTOH -- I think even that NPC report is too freakin' optimistic concerning new supply. Right now there is a whole bunch of attention on the very bullish long term supply issues which is buoying the NG stocks, IMO. I think we may be setting up for a near term disappointment there. Something else that is of interest to me there is the industrial demand that has left the US since 1998 / 1999. How much MORE industrial demand has the option of leaving the US??

To: ild who wrote (2615)	11/25/2003 6:32:53 PM
From: yard_man	Respond to of 110194

has anybody checked out the new PIMCO commodity funds?? somebody just mentioned them to me today -- guess I'll call and get a prospectus

To: ild who wrote (2615)	11/25/2003 6:52:47 PM
From: russwinter	Respond to of 110194

Schaeffer comments on XBD: schaeffersresearch.com

To: ild who wrote (2615)	11/26/2003 8:41:37 AM
From: russwinter	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 110194

Quite a piece on inflation in the 11/25 Contrary Investor note commodity prices: yr/yr rate of change fats and oils: 43.9% foodstuffs 11.4% raw materials 23.2% energy 11.9% grains 9.4% metals 34.0% Take look at what the freight rates are to ship this stuff around the world. can you say "parabolic"; quote.bloomberg.com Inventories of copper are running low, nickel and tin are practically out. Another ho hum 1.5% drawdown of Cu inventories just in the last day. metalprices.com China uses it, and it takes material to build all those unnecessary second and third spec and "rental" homes here. OECD commercial oil stocks are very low, and this is at a time when major suppliers like Venezuela, Nigeria and of course the Middle East could blow up at any time. And China is on an energy use roll. That's why I'm "long" (own the stocks out right) the energy sector. Cheapest sector in the market, still discounting something: $22 oil, $3.50 gas? It will be interesting to look at natural gas use to heat all these oversized houses coming on line. Even when they're empty it's not a good idea to turn the heat off during a big freeze <ng>. There will be a squeeze there that puts us in even more deep doo-doo. The energy bill that failed was mostly just a big pork barrel feast, doing little to deal with the problem. And I'm sure when the problem hits it will be blamed on "terrorists', or some "the dog ate the homework" excuse. Our whole country is dominated by sycophants, it's shocking. Meanwhile as CI discusses the Fed uses bogus numbers, the core consumer price index (CPI) to try and claim inflation is low. They would have you believe it's only 2%. But even if it's really only 2% (which is nonsense) they still shouldn't have a fed funds rate of 1%. Now coming up on 26 months with a fed funds rate less than core CPI (even if you choose to use that bogus number). So they just print even more money, and since our real economy can't use it, it just flows into the financial markets as speculation. Message 19537308 That's why you see melt-up days like Monday. And runaway inflation I might add.