To: ChinuSFO who wrote (17743 ) 11/25/2003 8:24:58 PM From: LindyBill Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 793597 Remember my comment about if "Wishes were Horses, SC? Here is the latest poll from Florida, a state Bush almost lost. Now he has a twenty point lead. I think you are out of touch with political reality. _______________________________________ Poll: Bush way ahead in Florida Lieberman leads Democrats in state survey By Bill Cotterell DEMOCRAT POLITICAL EDITOR Tallahassee News Florida voters trust President Bush more than any of his Democratic rivals to run the war in Iraq and restore the economy, a poll released Monday indicated. The Mason-Dixon Florida Poll said Bush's overall approval rating has held steady - although his disapproval numbers have risen since last summer. But in head-to-head matchups with his major Democratic challengers, Bush led by 20 points or more. The first Mason-Dixon poll taken since Sen. Bob Graham dropped out of the presidential contest also showed a close race in the nine-Democrat field. Sen. Joe Lieberman, D-Conn., had 21-percent support - drawing heavily on name identification from his 2000 vice-presidential campaign and popularity in urban areas of Southeast Florida - but former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean was gaining on him at 17 percent. "We're gratified to be leading the '04 field in Florida," said Jano Cabrera, a Lieberman campaign spokesman in Arlington, Va. "Senator Lieberman has obviously had a very special relationship with the state." Brad Coker, director of Mason-Dixon Polling & Research Inc., said that with Graham out of the race, no Democratic candidates are widely known in Florida. "A significant 23 percent are still undecided, which basically means that the Florida primary is still up for grabs and will likely be influenced by what happens in the earlier primary and caucus states," Coker said. The survey on issues and the president's popularity was conducted last week among 625 registered voters, with a margin of error of 4 percent. Mason-Dixon also ran an "over-sampling" of 379 registered Democrats, to test the strength of Bush's challengers, and that sampling had a 5-percent error margin. The polling was sponsored by the Tallahassee Democrat and several other newspapers and broadcasters in the state. Florida is crucial With 27 electoral votes, Florida is the key to the White House next November. After a 36-day standoff of court fights, recounts and street demonstrations, Bush carried the state by only 537 votes in 2000. But the easy re-election of his brother, Gov. Jeb Bush, and the GOP sweep of Cabinet seats last year, plus a rebounding economy in recent weeks, have been seen as signs of strength for his re-election effort. Cabrera noted that Bush's handling of the war was favored by only 54 percent of those surveyed, while 52 percent supported his economic policies. "Poll after poll show the electorate is very evenly divided on Bush's handling of the economy and the war," he said. "The last president who had poll numbers approaching below 50 percent on the economy was another Bush, back in 1991." Tallahassee City Commissioner Allan Katz, a Dean supporter, said he was "very encouraged" to see Dean within the poll's margin of error, behind Lieberman. "The good news is, Governor Dean is clearly climbing among Democrats, and he isn't doing any worse against President Bush than any of the other Democrats," Katz said. "He's not well-known down here, but the fact that Dean has done so well around the country will begin to seep into Florida as the campaign goes on." Coker said it was significant that Bush's favorable name recognition stood at 53 percent, compared with 30 percent unfavorable. That's a 4-percent increase since July in the number of voters with an unfavorable view of the incumbent, but much better than the favorable-unfavorable ratios of Dean (21-22 percent), Lieberman (32-27 percent) and retired Gen. Wesley Clark (24-18 percent). Dean, Lieberman and Sen. John Kerry, D-Mass., have made some forays into Florida, but most of the Democrats are concentrating their efforts in Iowa, which has caucuses on Jan. 19, and New Hampshire, which has a primary on Jan. 27. The Democratic nomination probably will be decided before Florida has its March 9 primary. Coker said the Florida numbers will surely shift after the early primaries, when some low-scoring candidates drop out and one to three survivors see a "bounce" out of the Sunbelt primaries from South Carolina to Arizona in February. He said Bush's 54-percent approval on conduct of the war and 52-percent voter confidence on the economy mean "it will be very difficult for the Democrats to win in Florida" next year.tallahassee.com