Seeing Iowa as springboard, Kerry mounts a new push
Senator spending more money, time
boston.com
By Glen Johnson, Globe Staff, 11/27/2003
DES MOINES -- Senator John F. Kerry has concluded that the road to victory in New Hampshire runs through Iowa, and is trying harder to post a strong showing in the state's Democratic caucuses on Jan. 19, hoping to build momentum going into the Granite State primary eight days later.
The Massachusetts Democrat is bulking up his political organization in Iowa, spending more time campaigning in the state, and sustaining an advertising blitz that began two weeks ago. His redoubled efforts are designed to try to offset the union support of Representative Richard A. Gephardt of Missouri and the backing that antiwar activists have given former Vermont governor Howard Dean, who are running first and second in recent polls, with Kerry in third place. In New Hampshire, Dean has maintained a double-digit lead over Kerry.
"I believe that the Iowa result will have a major impact on the last eight days of the New Hampshire campaign," said Jerry Crawford, a Des Moines lawyer who serves as Kerry's Iowa campaign chairman. "Dean has created enormous expectations in Iowa. I think the expectation for his victory here creates an enormous opportunity for us. We have a great organization here and a candidate who can exceed expectations. And that can have a great impact on the psychology of the New Hampshire voters."
At the same time, Crawford yesterday downplayed the idea that Kerry was making extraordinary efforts, saying he always believed that the senator would mount a serious, sustained campaign in the first state to select delegates to the Democratic convention next July.
But the stepping-up of Kerry's effort in Iowa is apparent.
He is putting the finishing touches on an organization studded with legislators and their political networks, and has convinced a seasoned operative to go to the state. Boston political consultant Michael Whouley visited Iowa earlier this week and plans to move there full time in January to work for Kerry, said top local Democrats and some of Kerry's political rivals.
Whouley, who served as Al Gore's political director in the 2000 campaign, and who famously urged him in a last-minute call not to concede the disputed Election Day results to Republican George W. Bush, had not planned to leave his lucrative post at the Dewey Square Group in Boston until late next summer, after Kerry had secured the Democratic nomination. That rosy scenario was envisioned by the campaign earlier this year, when Kerry was widely considered the frontrunner for the nomination.
For his part, Kerry spent both Tuesday and yesterday campaigning in Iowa, even as his eight opponents vacated the state ahead of the Thanksgiving holiday.
In addition, his campaign has launched a nonstop advertising blitz in Iowa since deciding two weeks ago to opt out of public financing for the primaries. The decision frees Kerry from spending limits in each primary and caucus state. His commercials, counterattacking President Bush for accusing Democratic candidates of attacking the war on terrorism, have been running statewide.
The overall thrust of Kerry's Iowa effort is to post, at worst, a surprisingly strong third-place finish, closely behind Gephardt, whose home state borders Iowa, and Dean, whose insurgent campaign has attracted widespread attention.
The momentum, or "bump," of such a result, combined with a subsequent victory in New Hampshire gained through a similar campaign onslaught spearheaded by former New Hampshire governor Jeanne Shaheen, is Kerry's best hope for political salvation, according to state and national Democrats who have spoken with top Kerry campaign aides.
That scenario would follow the precedent set in 1988 by another Massachusetts Democrat, former governor Michael S. Dukakis, who came in third in Iowa unexpectedly before going on to secure the nomination, starting with a win in the New Hampshire primary.
Political aides not affiliated with the Kerry campaign, who spoke on the condition of anonymity, said this week that Kerry has two reasons to believe a strong Iowa finish is still attainable.
First, Iowa's Democratic governor, Tom Vilsack, has told some people close to him that he believes Kerry can still win the nomination. Vilsack has yet to declare whom he will endorse, if anyone.
Also, focus groups convened by one of Kerry's opponents show that recent advertising attacks between Dean and Gephardt over such issues as Medicare funding have diminished both candidates' favorability ratings. Kerry, who has targeted Bush in his ads, has gotten credit from viewers for "appearing presidential," a top aide to the rival campaign said.
Glen Johnson can be reached at johnson@globe.com.
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