To: calgal who wrote (498744 ) 11/25/2003 10:25:15 PM From: geode00 Respond to of 769667 "...Financial markets yawned at the news. By late morning, the Dow Jones industrial average was up by 8.30 points, or 0.09 percent. Other major market indexes were also modestly higher. In the bond market, where such strong numbers might be expected to lift interest rates, the reverse happened. By midday, long-term interest rates were little changed to slightly lower. Mr. Resler and other economists had been expecting the revised numbers that were released this morning from the Commerce Department would be stronger than those that were initially reported. The consensus forecast among economists called for an upward revision to 7.8 percent. But estimates ranged from as low as 6.9 percent to as high as 8.3 percent. That is because preliminary estimates do not include actual data for the third month of a quarter on inventories and trade. Moreover, other data are preliminary, and are usually revised. The biggest source of this morning's revision was on inventories. Data released earlier this month showed that inventories rose in September. It was the first time that stocks had shown an increase in six months. The build in inventories accounted for a full percentage point of the upward revision to gross domestic product, Mr. Resler said. Consumer spending, which represents two-thirds of economic activity, increased at a 6.4 percent annual rate in the third quarter, the Commerce Department said, the fastest pace in six years.The combination of tax cuts and mortgage refinancings were instrumental in triggering the surge. In large measure, growth in the current quarter will probably slow because consumers will have less cash in their pockets. "There will be a lot less growth in consumer spending," Mr. Resler said. "A ton of cars were sold in the third quarter, proably more than is consistent with current demographics." At the moment, Mr. Resler said he expected consumer spending to expand at a 1 percent rate in the fourth quarter. And he admitted that there will need to be "some improvement" in retailing activity this month and next to reach that level. For the quarter, Mr. Resler said he expected overall growth to slow to a 3.5 percent rate. Moreover, it remains to be seen just how many jobs such growth will generate, he said. "We will not get all of those two million jobs we have lost back in the next 12 months," he said...." nytimes.com