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To: Frank who wrote (27465)	11/26/2003 11:56:05 AM
From: JCS	Respond to of 206181

"Arch--think about it for a minute--how can weather events be random when they are part of an environmental system--I emphasize--"system" ?" IMO the weather system statement is true as applied to the entire globe. Deviations from seasonal or shorter period norms at any location on earth are random. Locations can be as large or larger than continents. If this were not true, weather forecasting would be easy.

To: Frank who wrote (27465)	11/26/2003 6:50:57 PM
From: Archie Meeties	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 206181

At the risk of turning this into a amateur weather thread, (something Roebear would just have to suffer through), I'll try to explain myself. I think my previous point was that 3 out 10 warm winters might be a trend, and that if this is a trend then there is a higher chance of this winter being warm (as opposed to a random chance). Then the counter argument came that each winter is a discreet random event like a coin toss and this winter still has a 1:100 chance of being warm. I actually agree with what you said - that weather trends are not random.