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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: loantech who wrote (2663)	11/27/2003 8:01:58 AM
From: russwinter	Respond to of 110194

All I'm saying is that there is an unsustainable and dangerous boom (see below, this is occuring in about everything, not isolated)going on in Asia. Here it's more like wet charcoal that been doused with two gallons of gasoline. Of course supply shocks, maladjustments and activity will develop from that, but I don't exactly define that as "a lot better economy". It's clearly something else: maladjusted. One thing I am certain of, a one percent fed funds rate is criminal monetary conduct in current circumstances, and we will see how markets react when it quickly heads to about 4% or even higher. Can you spell B- U-S-T? And I'm not talking about your wives or girl friends. Keep your eye on the end of the boom (very tough task), it will affect just about everything, you'll want to be short about everything too. Right now it's like a bucking bronco. Reuters Spot alumina prices soar on China panic buying Thursday November 27, 5:07 am ET By Polly Yam HONG KONG, Nov 27 (Reuters) - Spot alumina prices have jumped over the past two weeks following aggressive bookings by Chinese aluminium smelters on the expectation that prices for the raw material will rise in 2004, trading and Chinese smelter sources said on Thursday. Prices rose quickly after some foreign alumina producers met Chinese smelters in the week beginning November 10 in Shanghai and opened offers for 2004 shipments. The sources said some foreign producers offered an FOB alumina price of $350 a tonne for 2004 term shipment, or 22 percent of the benchmark London Metal Exchange aluminium monthly settlement price. They said the producers offered $280-290 for 2004-2006 term shipment, or 18-19 percent of the monthly aluminium settlement price. This was up from about 14 percent for 2002-2004 term shipment. The offers, close to spot prices of about $355 quoted in late October, coupled with panic bookings by Chinese smelters for January-June shipments quickly pushed up prices in the spot market. Traders saw spot offers for Australian alumina at around $400 a tonne CIF China versus about $390 last week and $350-355 a month ago. Sources said the price hike triggered some traders to hold back their prompt and forward cargoes. They estimated 700,000- 800,000 tonnes of alumina are stored in warehouses in Chinese ports. Reduced offers from traders further fuelled prices in the Chinese domestic market to about 4,300 yuan ($519.30) a tonne ex-warehouse in Chinese ports versus 3,700-3,800 yuan in late October. But China's dominant alumina producer Aluminum Corp of China Ltd (Chalco) (HKSE:2600.HK - News) has maintained its term price at 3,300 yuan since late October. CHALCO PRODUCTION Chalco told its customers in a meeting held on November 25-26 in the Sichuan provincial capital Chengdu that it planned to produce 6.5 million tonnes of alumina in 2004. Of this, 2 million tonnes would be for its own smelters and 4.5 million tonnes for sale to other Chinese aluminium plants, smelter sources said. Chalco's expected output in 2004 represents a 14-percent rise from the 5.7 million tonnes of alumina the company planned to produce this year. The smelter sources said Chalco also planned to import 1.5 million tonnes of alumina in 2004 for reselling in the domestic market. Smelters and Chalco signed 2004 term shipments at prices as low as 3,000 yuan a tonne, the sources said. At the meeting, Chalco urged smelters not to buy alumina in a panic, as that would push up prices and draw attention from the government, the smelter sources said. "Chalco also asked smelters not to sell aluminium at below 15,000 yuan a tonne. That's only a suggestion," a smelter official said. Chalco could not immediately be reached for comment. The sources said Chalco had told its customers it would not supply alumina to smelters that are operating against government policy or to those that have carried debts to Chalco for a long time. (1 US$=8.28 yuan)

To: loantech who wrote (2663)	11/28/2003 12:35:39 AM
From: Jim Willie CB	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 110194

commodity prices are set in world market why would anyone assume that reflected USEconomy? sorry, dont translate to US strength so many prefer to regard the commodity and other markets as being US-centric I know you dont assume that Asia is pushing the margin on commodities of all types principally China they are purchasing South American copper and US grains, soybeans I have been saying for about 18-20 months that if one does not account for China, factor in China, and focus on their growth in almost every single market, he/she will miss the proper perspective on what is happening IT HAS NOTHING, ABSOLUTELY NOTHING, TO DO WITH THE USA DEMAND the USEconomy is all about the financial sector, and little else / jim