Two See Iowa as Crucial Battleground
By Dan Balz
Washington Post Staff Writer
Saturday, November 29, 2003; Page A01
DES MOINES -- The state of Iowa always plays an outsize role in the presidential nomination process, but perhaps never more so than in 2004. An intensifying battle here between former Vermont governor Howard Dean and Rep. Richard A. Gephardt (Mo.) suggests that the first major contest in the Democratic race may also prove to be the most important.
Dean has never made a secret of his strategy for capturing the Democratic nomination: beat Gephardt in Iowa, beat Sen. John F. Kerry (Mass.) in New Hampshire and dare any of his opponents to stop him. In New Hampshire, he already holds a solid lead over Kerry, but in Iowa, Gephardt stands squarely in his path. A Gephardt victory on Jan. 19 could significantly complicate Dean's path to the nomination.
"It's pretty hard to construct a scenario where somebody gets started from a standing start in all these states that come after that," Gephardt said in an interview when asked about the chances of stopping Dean if he wins the first two big contests. "But it's a question that we don't need to ask, because I'm going to win Iowa."
The Dean-Gephardt fight is rich in substance and symbolism, offering a window into the state of the Democratic Party and the power of its resurgent liberal wing as its activists prepare to select a nominee to challenge President Bush next November.
Neither Gephardt nor Dean pretends he is a New Democrat. Instead, both are fighting from and for the left, reflecting not only the liberal makeup of the caucus participants in Iowa, but also the ideological shift in the party during Bush's presidency, one that could leave the center open to Bush in the general election.
Dean has used Gephardt's support for going to war in Iraq to try to drive a wedge between the former House Democratic leader and the antiwar activists in the party here. Gephardt has used Dean's past, and perhaps future, support for reining in the growth of federal entitlement programs such as Medicare and his support for the North American Free Trade Agreement to drive a wedge between Dean and the party's traditional economic liberals.
Their fight has divided the party along classic lines: Dean appeals to upscale, well-educated Democrats; Gephardt, to blue-collar workers and seniors. Gephardt has the party regulars; Dean is the darling of the newcomers.
The Dean-Gephardt battle, here and nationally, also has created a schism in the ranks of organized labor, reflecting divisions among unions over the predominance of international trade. Gephardt has the backing of major industrial unions -- Steelworkers, Teamsters, Machinists -- while Dean has the support of the two big service and public employee unions, the Service Employees International Union (SEIU) and the American Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees (AFSCME).
Gephardt and Dean have hurled charges at each other in speeches, in debates, on television and through the mail. A poll released last week showed Dean surging and up by 10 points -- a margin his advisers, who do not underestimate Gephardt, say is decidedly optimistic. An earlier poll showed Gephardt ahead by five points, after trailing in the summer. Both sides believe the race will remain close to the end.
Iowa Democrats see Dean and Gephardt in a two-person battle for first place at this point. Kerry has a well-regarded organization, but Mark Smith, president of the AFL-CIO's Iowa Federation of Labor, which has not taken sides said, "He just doesn't seem to have traction." Kerry hopes to change that, and he has moved to strengthen his operation with a goal of being part of a photo finish with Dean and Gephardt. Sen. John Edwards (N.C.) is also running hard, looking to overtake Kerry for third.
Iowa Attorney General Tom Miller (D) called Dean and Gephardt well-matched. "Dean has had just an amazing rise here and has a lot of support and has new people," he said. "He probably has broader support geographically, which is important on caucus night. And Gephardt hasn't blinked. He's got good labor support here, he's got his friends from 16 years' standing, he works hard, and I think he's distinguished himself in the campaign."
Gephardt brings notable assets to the battle, which he and his advisers regard as a must-win contest to keep his hopes for the nomination alive. He has a message tailor-made for Iowa Democrats, heavy on themes of jobs, the economy, health care and opposition to free trade.
Gephardt also has experience, having won the caucuses in 1988, and an almost plodding discipline to his campaign style, captured in campaign T-shirts that say, "Fear the Turtle." And he has the unions -- 21 international unions that have endorsed his candidacy -- and his most important prize here, the Iowa chapter of the United Auto Workers.
Dave Neil, who heads the Iowa UAW's political operation, said trade is the reason his union stands with Gephardt. "When you see it firsthand and witness the community devastation once the plants close, why would you abandon somebody who's been a champion of your causes all along?"
"The people who have endorsed Dick have felt the brunt of job loss and trade policies," said Chuck Rocha, Gephardt's labor liaison in the state. "Those guys get it. They're self-motivating."
Dean has plenty of assets of his own. His opposition to the war has great appeal in a state with a long history of activism in the peace movement. And in winning the SEUI and AFSCME, he has union resources to aid in organizing for the caucuses. Of the two, AFSCME is the more significant in Iowa, a union with members in all 99 counties and a reputation for political organizing equal to that of the UAW.
To complement his labor support, Dean has built an impressive organization, and, according to veterans of the caucus process, may have stumbled upon an unexpected organizing tool: monthly sessions for supporters organized through Meetup.com. Dean's advisers have turned those meetings into training sessions for supporters who have not participated in past caucuses, and they appear to be highly motivated.
Dean also has one asset Gephardt cannot match: money. Having chosen to forgo public financing of his campaign, Dean is free to spend as much as he wants in Iowa, while Gephardt, who will receive federal matching funds in January, must stay within state spending limits.
Kerry, too, has opted out of public financing, and Gephardt said he knows they will outspend him down the stretch. "I think they'll run more TV ads than I'll run," he said. "I think they'll put out more mailers than we'll have. I think they'll have more employees in the state. I think they'll rent more buses than we will. They'll do more of everything." But he said his labor support will overcome Dean's additional resources. "I think even if they [Dean and Kerry] double up on spending, I'm going to win Iowa," he said.
Paul Maslin, Dean's pollster, said Gephardt's union base alone makes him formidable. "We respect Gephardt's strength," he said. "But there is something this year about Iowa's going first and being able to make a statement to the country and the party. Our campaign is the campaign with new energy. That's what differentiates Howard Dean this year. That may be a pretty decisive factor."
Miller, the attorney general, earlier endorsed Sen. Joseph I. Lieberman (Conn.), only to see his candidate pull out of the state to concentrate his energies elsewhere. Now Miller is an enthusiastic spectator, anticipating the last days of the campaign. "It's going to be a great battle in Iowa," he predicted.
© 2003 The Washington Post Company
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washingtonpost.com
Two See Iowa as Crucial Battleground
By Dan Balz
Washington Post Staff Writer
Saturday, November 29, 2003; Page A01
DES MOINES -- The state of Iowa always plays an outsize role in the presidential nomination process, but perhaps never more so than in 2004. An intensifying battle here between former Vermont governor Howard Dean and Rep. Richard A. Gephardt (Mo.) suggests that the first major contest in the Democratic race may also prove to be the most important.
Dean has never made a secret of his strategy for capturing the Democratic nomination: beat Gephardt in Iowa, beat Sen. John F. Kerry (Mass.) in New Hampshire and dare any of his opponents to stop him. In New Hampshire, he already holds a solid lead over Kerry, but in Iowa, Gephardt stands squarely in his path. A Gephardt victory on Jan. 19 could significantly complicate Dean's path to the nomination.
"It's pretty hard to construct a scenario where somebody gets started from a standing start in all these states that come after that," Gephardt said in an interview when asked about the chances of stopping Dean if he wins the first two big contests. "But it's a question that we don't need to ask, because I'm going to win Iowa."
The Dean-Gephardt fight is rich in substance and symbolism, offering a window into the state of the Democratic Party and the power of its resurgent liberal wing as its activists prepare to select a nominee to challenge President Bush next November.
Neither Gephardt nor Dean pretends he is a New Democrat. Instead, both are fighting from and for the left, reflecting not only the liberal makeup of the caucus participants in Iowa, but also the ideological shift in the party during Bush's presidency, one that could leave the center open to Bush in the general election.
Dean has used Gephardt's support for going to war in Iraq to try to drive a wedge between the former House Democratic leader and the antiwar activists in the party here. Gephardt has used Dean's past, and perhaps future, support for reining in the growth of federal entitlement programs such as Medicare and his support for the North American Free Trade Agreement to drive a wedge between Dean and the party's traditional economic liberals.
Their fight has divided the party along classic lines: Dean appeals to upscale, well-educated Democrats; Gephardt, to blue-collar workers and seniors. Gephardt has the party regulars; Dean is the darling of the newcomers.
The Dean-Gephardt battle, here and nationally, also has created a schism in the ranks of organized labor, reflecting divisions among unions over the predominance of international trade. Gephardt has the backing of major industrial unions -- Steelworkers, Teamsters, Machinists -- while Dean has the support of the two big service and public employee unions, the Service Employees International Union (SEIU) and the American Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees (AFSCME).
Gephardt and Dean have hurled charges at each other in speeches, in debates, on television and through the mail. A poll released last week showed Dean surging and up by 10 points -- a margin his advisers, who do not underestimate Gephardt, say is decidedly optimistic. An earlier poll showed Gephardt ahead by five points, after trailing in the summer. Both sides believe the race will remain close to the end.
Iowa Democrats see Dean and Gephardt in a two-person battle for first place at this point. Kerry has a well-regarded organization, but Mark Smith, president of the AFL-CIO's Iowa Federation of Labor, which has not taken sides said, "He just doesn't seem to have traction." Kerry hopes to change that, and he has moved to strengthen his operation with a goal of being part of a photo finish with Dean and Gephardt. Sen. John Edwards (N.C.) is also running hard, looking to overtake Kerry for third.
Iowa Attorney General Tom Miller (D) called Dean and Gephardt well-matched. "Dean has had just an amazing rise here and has a lot of support and has new people," he said. "He probably has broader support geographically, which is important on caucus night. And Gephardt hasn't blinked. He's got good labor support here, he's got his friends from 16 years' standing, he works hard, and I think he's distinguished himself in the campaign."
Gephardt brings notable assets to the battle, which he and his advisers regard as a must-win contest to keep his hopes for the nomination alive. He has a message tailor-made for Iowa Democrats, heavy on themes of jobs, the economy, health care and opposition to free trade.
Gephardt also has experience, having won the caucuses in 1988, and an almost plodding discipline to his campaign style, captured in campaign T-shirts that say, "Fear the Turtle." And he has the unions -- 21 international unions that have endorsed his candidacy -- and his most important prize here, the Iowa chapter of the United Auto Workers.
Dave Neil, who heads the Iowa UAW's political operation, said trade is the reason his union stands with Gephardt. "When you see it firsthand and witness the community devastation once the plants close, why would you abandon somebody who's been a champion of your causes all along?"
"The people who have endorsed Dick have felt the brunt of job loss and trade policies," said Chuck Rocha, Gephardt's labor liaison in the state. "Those guys get it. They're self-motivating."
Dean has plenty of assets of his own. His opposition to the war has great appeal in a state with a long history of activism in the peace movement. And in winning the SEUI and AFSCME, he has union resources to aid in organizing for the caucuses. Of the two, AFSCME is the more significant in Iowa, a union with members in all 99 counties and a reputation for political organizing equal to that of the UAW.
To complement his labor support, Dean has built an impressive organization, and, according to veterans of the caucus process, may have stumbled upon an unexpected organizing tool: monthly sessions for supporters organized through Meetup.com. Dean's advisers have turned those meetings into training sessions for supporters who have not participated in past caucuses, and they appear to be highly motivated.
Dean also has one asset Gephardt cannot match: money. Having chosen to forgo public financing of his campaign, Dean is free to spend as much as he wants in Iowa, while Gephardt, who will receive federal matching funds in January, must stay within state spending limits.
Kerry, too, has opted out of public financing, and Gephardt said he knows they will outspend him down the stretch. "I think they'll run more TV ads than I'll run," he said. "I think they'll put out more mailers than we'll have. I think they'll have more employees in the state. I think they'll rent more buses than we will. They'll do more of everything." But he said his labor support will overcome Dean's additional resources. "I think even if they [Dean and Kerry] double up on spending, I'm going to win Iowa," he said.
Paul Maslin, Dean's pollster, said Gephardt's union base alone makes him formidable. "We respect Gephardt's strength," he said. "But there is something this year about Iowa's going first and being able to make a statement to the country and the party. Our campaign is the campaign with new energy. That's what differentiates Howard Dean this year. That may be a pretty decisive factor."
Miller, the attorney general, earlier endorsed Sen. Joseph I. Lieberman (Conn.), only to see his candidate pull out of the state to concentrate his energies elsewhere. Now Miller is an enthusiastic spectator, anticipating the last days of the campaign. "It's going to be a great battle in Iowa," he predicted.
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