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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Wyätt Gwyön who wrote (2730)11/29/2003 12:11:19 PM
From: marginmike  Read Replies (3) | Respond to of 110194
 
agree, I think dollar is about to bounce, and golds sell off as we get our blowoff up here



To: Wyätt Gwyön who wrote (2730)11/29/2003 1:03:27 PM
From: Jim Willie CB  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 110194
 
in dangerous phase#2 for USDollar decline
and the exciting phase#2 for GOLD ascent
counter bounces do not typically occur so early after breakouts
we have merely peeked the heads out of windows and retreated mildly

even those who follow the dollar and gold will get this wrong
in phase#2, the fundamentals align with the early signals
major players get onboard
international markets and economies show confirming strain
govt intervention mechanisms are proving toothless suddenly
and the public observes and begins to join

the trade gap worsened in September
the capital flows worsened horribly in September

keep those contrary thoughts going
I expect to find them NOT WORK THIS TIME
for at least 3-5 months
the USDollar DXY index is not technically positioned to bounce here at all !!!
the critical broken support was 92, not 90
it is fiddling & diddling, hanging by threads, just below 92
and will careen below 90 very soon

honestly, I dont find much foundational research behind such calls
not much on checking foreign central bank action
not much on observing capital flow changes
not much on noticing how miners will now want prices to rise
not much on acknowledging that both major currency axes are pushing against the dollar
not much on even paying lip service to the growing international movement from China to Russia to Islam to PacRim in forming anti-dollar defense alliances for commerce
just a shallow gut (not meant to be disrespectful)

we are in the Elliott Wave major movement phases

gold (dis)believers got it wrong for the gold pullbacks and the dollar bounces for the last 2-3 months
why is that?
could it be that those bounces are overdue?
or are we in the dangerous phase#2?

GOLD will not relent until it pushes up to $420
and USDollar will not relent until it pushes down to 87
methinks you guys are late to this game
are you so busy with other markets that you dont research this gold/dollar market very thoroughly?

Richard Russell stated openly a few times how gold followers will lack conviction and miss much of the upcoming gains
his warnings and your bounce calls are very consistent
my guess is you will NEVER properly forecast a gold move over 400

I EXPECT GOLD TO VAULT PAST 400 BY JANUARY
/ jim



To: Wyätt Gwyön who wrote (2730)11/29/2003 1:13:47 PM
From: BubbaFred  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 110194
 
Could you cut and paste the WSJ article? A WSJ subscription is required to read the linked article.



To: Wyätt Gwyön who wrote (2730)11/29/2003 2:33:00 PM
From: russwinter  Respond to of 110194
 
<kiss of death for Dollar Bears?>

I can offer only one combination scenario that saves the USD.

1. The Wizard of Oz gets run over by a truck (and real soon), and is replaced by Paul Volcker.

AND

2. Every CB in the world elects to bankrupt their populace, and wastes all their monetary resources mounting a Gotterdammerung support (with accompanying Wagnerian chorus) of the USD, thus handing their remain wealth over to rich (and smart) speculators.