Florida is of special interest to Bush for '04
boston.com.
By Charlie Savage, Globe Staff, 11/29/2003
MIAMI -- In the weeks leading up to the hemispheric free-trade talks last week, Florida citrus and sugar growers bombarded the state with ads warning that eliminating protective tariffs would lead to economic ruin. One particularly aggressive sugar spot that aired on Spanish-language radio stations explicitly denounced the Bush administration for jeopardizing jobs in an industry close to the Cuban community.
A year out from the next presidential election, the Bush administration apparently was listening. When the Free Trade Area of the Americas talks stumbled to an early, limp end in Miami, trade analysts pinned the blame on the US refusal to discuss its agricultural trade barriers.
Daniel Griswold, a trade specialist at the libertarian Cato Institute, said the influence of the Florida citrus and sugar industries -- which represent more than 100,000 jobs and a $12 billion piece of the state economy -- was key to that outcome. For the White House, protecting Florida agricultural interests matched its March decision to slap tariffs on imported steel on behalf of domestic producers in Pennsylvania and other states. Both actions went against the administration's free-trade policies but could help President Bush win reelection next year.
"We all know how close Florida has been politically, so the administration is loath to antagonize any special interest in Florida," Griswold said. "I'm not expecting President Bush any time between now and next November to make any bold initiatives to open up the US market to citrus and sugar imports, even though he should because they are a very damaging trade barrier for the United States."
The administration is paying intense attention to Florida, which went to Bush by only 537 votes in 2000 and could prove to be the decisive swing state again next year. An unprecedented jockeying for political advantage in the state is underway involving trade issues, Cuba policy, and the race to succeed retiring Senator Bob Graham, a Democrat.
"The bottom line for both parties is, `Ignore Florida at your peril,' " said Susan McManus, professor of politics at the University of South Florida. "Both parties are on the ground earlier, organizing their get-out-the-vote effort, even having training sessions down to the precinct level and getting together their e-mail lists. In the past, they waited until the last minute, . . . but here we are a year out and they're hitting the ground running."
After Democratic nominee Bill McBride lost to Governor Jeb Bush, the president's brother, some critics said McBride's campaign had relied too heavily on television ads and neglected get-out-the-vote efforts. So while Democrats are counting on a boost from coverage of their Orlando convention next month -- all nine candidates plan to come -- state chairman Scott Maddox said party activists already have knocked on 4,000 doors in Broward County, a party stronghold in southern Florida.
The degree to which the 400,000-strong Cuban-American community in Florida shows up at the polls will be a critical factor. In 2000, months after the Clinton administration returned castaway Elian Gonzalez to his father in Cuba, exiles turned out in record numbers to vote in the presidential race. More than 8 of 10 of those votes went against Al Gore.
This summer, the Cuban-American National Federation and state Representative David Rivera, a Miami Republican, sent letters to Bush warning that he cannot count on the same high turnout next year. Bush has been blasted on Spanish talk radio for not doing enough after President Fidel Castro cracked down on dissidents in Cuba earlier this year and for continuing to return refugees intercepted at sea. Bush "needed to know that there are some frustrations in the community because when he came into office, expectations were very high," Rivera said this week. "He has a strong record in supporting the embargo, and we have the veto threat from him on any attempt to lift sanctions on the dictator. But we're hoping for more aid to dissidents. And we expect him to fulfill his 2000 campaign pledge to reassess migration policy toward Cuban refugees."
After the letters, Bush used a veto threat to kill a proposal to ease the US embargo against Cuba, and the Justice Department indicted the Cuban fighter pilots who shot down an exile search plane in 1996 -- a symbolic gesture because the pilots live on the island. Among the Democratic candidates, former Vermont governor Howard Dean and US Senator John F. Kerry of Massachusetts softened their criticism of the embargo.
Strategizing for 2004 also has spilled into the US Senate race, which broke open in October when the popular Graham announced after dropping his presidential bid that he would not seek reelection.
US Representative Katherine Harris, who oversaw the partial recount of presidential ballots in 2000 as Florida secretary of state, said earlier this month that she is considering running. Members of both parties said that Bush's chief political adviser, Karl Rove, has asked her to wait until 2006 and instead pushed Housing and Urban Development Secretary Mel Martinez, a Cuban-American and former chief executive of Orange County, Fla., to jump in. "Democrats would be galvanized by the memory of 2000 simply by Katherine Harris's candidacy on the same ballot," said Tony Welch, press secretary for the Democratic National Committee.
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