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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Tom Pulley who wrote (84004)	12/1/2003 10:29:49 AM
From: Paul Shread	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

Tom, >>Looking back a few years, the years most resembling 2003 were 1991, 1995, and 1999. In each case the following year had strong gains in the early months. So, if we get a dip in the next few weeks, it could be setting up another good buying opportunity for an early 2004 run. After that though, the market may start worrying about what the fed will do after the 2004 election.<< I agree completely with that scenario. I think we'll top out sometime between the end of the first quarter and the end of the year - depending on when the market starts to sense the inevitable consumer recession. If you look at the 1968 and 1972 tops, the market didn't top until the end of the year, which is why I think this could go on through the end of next year. In general, my bet is for a modestly up year next year, with another cyclical bear starting sometime after the first quarter. Kind of vague, but this administration has shown quite an ability to boost the market and the economy ahead of the election, which is why I think it may go beyond the first quarter, if only in a multi-month topping process. We're due for a strong correction before this ends, however - I think this is the longest period without a strong correction (5%+) since the 1966 cyclical bull market. As far as your 12% goes, you did 35% last year, didn't you? I think anyone would be happy with that record. Pre-election years can be the most difficult to time, 1995 being the worst in my experience. Personally, I've had a good year - in the accounts I had the sense just to buy and hold in. ;-) Cheers, Paul