NASCAR dads may drive race to White House for Democrats
Group key to carrying Michigan, Southern states
By Richard A. Ryan / Detroit News Senior Washington Correspondent
NASCAR dads
Next year's presidential race could very well hinge on guys like Mark Kuenzel, a white suburban voter from West Bloomfield with a love for family, flag and fast racing cars.
Voters such as Kuenzel, known in today's political jargon as NASCAR dads, are this year's successor to the famed soccer moms of 2000. Soccer moms, concerned about education and health care for their families, tended to vote Democratic. But NASCAR dads, whose name comes from the famed auto racing circuit, tend to vote Republican.
The term NASCAR dad was coined last year by Democratic political pollster Celinda Lake as she described mostly white, culturally conservative Southern rural men who once voted Democratic but switched parties to vote for Ronald Reagan and, with few exceptions, have been doing so ever since. They have been instrumental in turning the South from solid Democratic into a Republican stronghold.
While NASCAR officials dispute the term, contending it stereotypes the country's 75 million automobile racing enthusiasts, they concede that their fans tend to be fiercely patriotic, pro-gun, and financially and culturally conservative with a tendency to vote Republican.
According to exit polls, about 70 percent of Southern white men voted for Bush in 2000. To win the presidency, a Democrat must win over those voters.
Democrats believe President George W. Bush is vulnerable on a sour economy that has cost the nation nearly 3 million jobs since he took office and the war in Iraq that is claiming the lives of American soldiers on an almost daily basis.
"Normally, these guys are a slam dunk constituency for Republicans," says pollster John Zogby. But for the past few years, they have watched helplessly as manufacturing jobs moved out of the country.
"While they are inclined to be conservative and Republican," Zogby says, "they are mad as hell and they could be in play next year. And in a close race anything that moves a couple hundred votes here and there could loom very large."
But in Kuenzel, Democrats face a hard sell.
He is a 41-year-old project engineer for a company that supplies pneumatic tools to the Big Three auto companies, the father of two boys and a racing fan since he was 10. He describes NASCAR fans as "hardworking Americans who scrimp and save to get to their events."
"I tend to be more conservative than liberal, and I like to keep the money I have," he says. "I voted for Bush last time, and right now I would vote for him again."
The United States was justified going into Iraq to remove Saddam Hussein, who was a "bad guy," Kuenzel says, and now that we're there, "we cannot back out."
Efforts by Democrats to play the "economic card" won't work, he adds, "because the economy is now turning around and Bush is still president."
7% of Michigan voters
Lansing pollster Ed Sarpolus says that NASCAR dads make up about 7 percent of Michigan voters, about half the number of the so-called Reagan Democrats who helped the former president win Michigan -- and the presidency -- in 1980 and again in 1984.
"The NASCAR dads represent the white demographic who sits on the financial edge," he says. "They are not poor. They are not rich. They tend to have kids. They tend to be middle-aged.
"They really represent the true working class. They are looking to get ahead. They are looking to do better than their parents."
They used to be Democrats but were "turned off" by the increasing liberalness of the Democratic Party, its support of minorities and its willingness to raise taxes, he says.
They voted for Bush in 2000. But Sarpolus believes concerns about health care and Michigan's dramatic loss of jobs could prompt them to switch allegiances in 2004.
"They are gung-ho Bush. They are gung-ho military. But they are saying, 'What about my benefits?' They want to continue to support Bush, but they don't understand why their support hasn't turned into benefits for them."
This concern is reflected in his polling numbers, Sarpolus says. While 63 percent of those polled say they have a favorable impression of Bush, only 39 percent say they definitely will vote to re-elect him next year. "These guys are in play," Sarpolus says.
Identify with Bush
Steve Mitchell, another Lansing pollster, says NASCAR dads are the guys "who like to go to the corner bar for a few beers on a Friday or Saturday night and who like to go up north during the hunting season."
These voters, Mitchell says, can identify with the president. "Bush drives around in a pickup truck. He is comfortable in Levis. They know he is a good ole boy who was young and foolish when he was young and foolish."
A few weeks back, former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean made a well-publicized pitch for the NASCAR dad vote when he said he wanted to appeal to "all those white guys riding around with Confederate flags in the back of their pickup trucks." He apologized after his comments were sharply criticized as racist by his competitors and civil rights groups.
But David "Mudcat" Saunders, a Democratic consultant from Roanoke, Va., says what is generally considered today to be the Confederate flag is not the actual flag that represented the Confederate states but the battle flag of the Army of Northern Virginia under the command of Gen. Robert E. Lee. As such, it is still revered by many Southerners who do not consider it racist, Saunders says.
Sizing up Democrats
Saunders praised Dean for at least making an effort to appeal to white Southern males who generally consider Democrats to be "a bunch of wusses" who want "to change their lifestyle and take away their culture."
North Carolina Sen. John Edwards has a Southern accent but "a Northern voting record" and is not likely to appeal to the Southern NASCAR fans, says Larry Sabato, political science professor at the University of Virginia. Retired Gen. Wesley Clark has some appeal because of his military background, but his opposition to the war may hurt him. If the economy turns really sour, Missouri Congressman Richard Gephardt might pick up some votes because of his opposition to the trade agreements voters blame for the loss of jobs.
But Dean is the only candidate who has identified the group "as someone he wants to appeal to," says Merle Black, a political science professor at Emory University in Atlanta.
Democrats cannot win the White House unless they win a few Southern states, Saunders says. "If you want to catch a fish, you've got to go fishing. And Howard Dean was fishing. I understood exactly what he was saying and I agree with it wholeheartedly."
Arguing that if Democrats appeal to Southern voters they will lose the base African-American vote is nonsense, Saunders says. "That is like saying you can't chew gum and walk at the same time."
Saunders figures he should know. He helped orchestrate Virginia Democratic Gov. Mark Warner's successful 2001 gubernatorial campaign. Warner sponsored a NASCAR vehicle and appeared at numerous NASCAR races to shake hands with fans. As a result, he was the first Democratic candidate in many years to win the rural vote while continuing to receive more than 90 percent of the African-American vote.
"Unlike most Democrats, Warner made it very clear he could care less about gun control," Sabato says. "He was for hunting and fishing and wasn't about to let anyone touch their guns. Without that rural vote, he would not have won."
Saunders tried to duplicate his Warner success with Florida Democratic Sen. Bob Graham, a former presidential candidate. Graham sponsored a NASCAR truck but it didn't work for him. He was the first candidate to drop out of the race. "He never built up a viable enough candidacy for the truck to work," Saunders says. "We just got started too late."
Patriotism defines group
One hallmark of every NASCAR race is an overwhelming sense of patriotism. All the military services sponsor a car or truck in NASCAR events. Stands are bedecked with American flags.
When the U.S. Army celebrated its 228th anniversary at the Michigan International Speedway, the Golden Knights performed a parachute jump, says Speedway spokesman Bill Janitz. The 82nd Airborne chorus sang "God Bless America" and the members of 101st Airborne formed the honor guard.
"You will find very few arenas in the country that are more patriotic than Winston Cup races," says Michigan Speedway President Brett Shelton. "I think the patriotism that exists is the overriding characteristic of our sport, absolutely."
This sense of patriotism makes it difficult for a Democratic candidate opposed to the war to appeal to these voters.
Kay Keselowski of Rochester Hills, who with her husband Bob owns trucks that race in the NASCAR Craftsman series, says she considers it to be "almost anti-American" to be opposed to the war.
"I don't think we can take care of all the problems in the world, but I think there were some atrocities in Iraq that needed to be addressed," she says. "But I don't think it is being as appreciated as it should be by the Iraqi people."
But if the war drags on and American soldiers continue to be shipped home in body bags, support could turn against the president, just as it did with President Lyndon Johnson during the Vietnam war.
"It certainly could hurt," says Emory University's Black. "If we are still in there and it doesn't seem any better than it does right now, I think it will take a real toll on the president." In the face of virulent anti-war opposition in 1968, Johnson declined to seek re-election.
NASCAR matures
NASCAR racing has come a long way since the days when Southern moonshine runners would pedal illegal liquor during the week and then race on weekends, says Mark Howell, director of the communications department at Northwestern Michigan College and author of a book on the history of NASCAR -- "From Moonshine to Madison Avenue: A Cultural History of the NASCAR Winston Cup Series."
At an estimated 75 million fans, NASCAR is the nation's fastest growing sport. It is second to professional football as the most watched on television. A poll by the Tarrance Group discovered that 17 percent of all voters describe themselves as hard-core NASCAR fans. That makes them almost as influential a group as labor unions and evangelical Christians.
NASCAR spokesman Terrence Burns says that of the one-third of all Americans who are NASCAR fans, 40 percent are women and 20 percent are minorities. Sixty percent live outside the Southeast and on average they are likely to be more affluent and have more children under the age of 18 than average Americans.
"If a Democrat wants these voters, he has to go after them on family issues," Howell says. "The candidate has to talk about family and talk about education and talk about helping the future of America. It is down home, mom, dad and apple pie."
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