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Biotech / Medical : Biotech Short Candidates -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: GREENLAW4-7 who wrote (611)	11/30/2003 11:36:34 AM
From: gotmojo	Respond to of 897

not to mention they only have 5 employees. LOL

To: GREENLAW4-7 who wrote (611)	12/1/2003 10:35:52 AM
From: tuck	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 897

Interesting, but do you mind telling me what trial you're talking about? The recent Bay 43-9006 PII data looked pretty good, but I don't know what the precise endpoints were (I know survival is the primary endpoint, but do not know what %). Besides this was interim data, the trial is ongoing. These were very sick patients, so the response they have gotten so far in this population doesn't seem bad at all. Further, the BRAF mutation that this drug targets shows up in a lot of other cancers aside from just kidney cancer, including some lung and breast cancers, so the market is bigger than you're making it out to be. onyx-pharm.com Finally, the market has rewarded ONXX for dropping it therapeutic virus programs, which was a very sound and overdue business decision. Mind you, I can buy the idea that this has gotten ahead of itself, but it has a 50/50 deal with Bayer, so approval for several cancers would be a big chunk. Just playing devil's advocate here. Further discussion could start with what are the target numbers on those endpoints? Cheers, Tuck

To: GREENLAW4-7 who wrote (611)	12/1/2003 4:53:54 PM
From: Biomaven	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 897

The most questionable aspect of this stock and its current 800 mil market cap is the fact the Kidney Cancer market is not even close to 800 mil a year. Novartis is selling about $1 billion a year of Glivec worldwide for a primary indication (CML) that has an incidence of around 4,000 patients in the US each year. Renal cell carcinoma (RCC) has an incidence of over 30,000 patients a year. Currently the treatment options for RCC are very limited. If the ONXX drug works well the stock would be at least a five-bagger from here even ignoring any potential use in other indications. Now it's a long way from this trial to approval, and so ONXX looks to me to be about fairly priced today. But to claim that RCC can't ever support this stock price is clearly incorrect. Peter