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Politics : Politics for Pros- moderated -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: KonKilo who wrote (18215)11/30/2003 9:19:38 PM
From: LindyBill  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 793658
 
I posted a crack about "every family has a 'Fredo.' Mark Steyn does a column on it.

Family concern
By Mark Steyn
News Telegraph

Profile: The Bush brothers

If you survey the contrasting fortunes of the Bush brothers this week, you cannot help noticing that Neil Bush is the guy the media, the Democrats and the Europeans accuse George W Bush of being. The one who's President - George, not Neil - flew in to Baghdad to spend Thanksgiving with the troops, whose rapturous reception was reported in The Independent under the headline "The turkey has landed" - which is apparently what passes for wit among its sub-editors. I hope they saved some turkey jokes for leftovers: they're going to have to keep up the moron cracks until January 2009.

On the other hand, Neil Bush, 48, would seem to be a bona fide turkey, served up trussed and roasted by his ex-wife's divorce lawyers. "Mr Bush admitted that he had sex with several women during trips to Thailand and Hong Kong," reported The Times. "The women, he said, simply knocked on the door of his hotel room, entered and had sex with him. He said that he did not know if they were prostitutes because they never asked for money and he did not pay them."

Well, he's paying for them now. "Mr Bush, you have to admit it's a pretty remarkable thing for a man just to go to a hotel room door and open it and have a woman standing there and have sex with her," said Marshall Brown, Sharon Bush's attorney. "It was very unusual," conceded Neil, who apparently hadn't given it much thought. Maybe these foxy babes had just spotted him in the piano lounge, taken a fancy, and given the bartender 10 bucks for his room number.

Mr Bush's answers were even less convincing when he was asked why a semiconductor business would give him a $2 million contract when he knew even less about semiconductors than about why Thai chicks were lining up outside his bedroom door. But the business was controlled by the son of the then Chinese President. In other words, Neil Bush is doing a pretty good impression of the Left's caricature of George W: a dimwit son of privilege riding his father's contacts to some sweetheart business deals.

While I am loath to categorise any man as a "moron", Neil's behaviour four months after September 11 certainly gets him through the preliminary qualifying round: he accepted an invitation to go to Jeddah and speak at an "economic forum" organised by Prince Talal ibn Abdul Aziz, who got his money's worth. The President's brother laid the blame for tensions in Saudi/American relations squarely at the door of the "US media campaign against the interests of Arabs and Muslims". Like Noam Chomsky and Co, he thought "the root causes of terror" were poverty and the plight of the Palestinians. And, he added, while "in the US for years we believed in Israel's right to exist", public opinion could be changed by a "sustained lobbying and PR effort", which the Saudis promptly launched. If I were President, I'd have had the Feds meet Neil's return flight and cart him off to Guantanamo, where he could study the "root causes" at close quarters.

Neil Bush dropped off the radar screen for a decade, but I remember, in the '92 presidential campaign, being on a radio panel with a conservative who said he couldn't possibly vote for Bush Sr because Neil was such a "sleazy" figure. Back in the 1980s Democrats made great hay over his role with Silverado Savings and Loan, which went belly-up fairly spectacularly, leaving taxpayers on the hook for a billion dollars. In those days, Neil was the most famous of the Bush boys. His older brothers, George and Jeb, were not yet governors of Texas and Florida, and the baby of the family, Marvin, has always kept a low profile, eschewing politics entirely, except for a crack during the 2000 Presidential campaign that "that great sucking sound you hear is the sound of the media's lips coming off John McCain's a...", at which point he was dragged off by Dubya's minders.

One reason the media were kissing up to McCain is that they disliked the thought of a new generation of Bushes. In that sense, Neil is not just the latest holder of the post of Embarrassing Presidential Brother, a tradition whose importance in American life has been much overrated - Donald Nixon and Billy Carter are a long time ago, and, despite the best efforts of a coke-fiend sibling, Bill Clinton essentially served as his own Embarrassing Presidential Brother. But Neil Bush accomplished something more than Donald or Billy: his reputation in the 1980s helped pre-define his brother; the press looked at George W and saw Neil.

The cuttings from the 2000 campaign make funny reading now: Scotland on Sunday's big profile of the Texas Governor was all about the "bland, Ivy League, cufflinks" Bush style, as befits someone from "the born-to-govern, Wasp establishment". It's not the cufflinks that bug Dubya's detractors, it's the cowboy boots; it's not the Ivy League blandness, it's the Lone Star swagger as he walks to the chopper on the White House lawn. George W is the only one of the Bush boys who is not a Texas native - he arrived in Midland in 1950 as a four-year-old, when his parents bought a house on Maple Street, now said to be worth a little under $15,000. But, more than any of his siblings, he has imbibed the West Texas spirit. Maybe it was different for Jeb, Neil and Marvin, all roughly a decade younger than George: they thus reached adulthood in the 1970s, when Dad had become far more politically prominent.

Still, if he had wanted, George Wcould have flown around the world at some other fellow's expense working his pop's extensive Middle Eastern and Asian Rolodex. Instead, he barely left the country. It's hard to imagine Dubya enjoying the services of Thai hookers, not only because, until the Apec summit a few weeks back, he had never been to Thailand but also because he has hardly spent a night away from Laura and, even when he does, he generally turns in at nine. In five years at the Governor's Mansion, the Bushes never threw a black-tie event: they like Tex-Mex barbecues and tailgate parties.

That is why Dubya had such a grand time in Baghdad on Thursday, serving up turkey, joshing with every single soldier in the room. Try to picture other dynastic beneficiaries - Ted Kennedy or Al Gore - doing the same, with the same easy authenticity. And, because they saw Bush only as a pampered mediocrity, the media still don't quite get his boldness: he pushed through his tax cuts and, to the horror of Democratic presidential candidates who have insisted that Bush plunged America into recession, he is been rewarded with third-quarter growth of 8.2 per cent. He was equally bold on Iraq, and Dems who have figured they can run on "It's the quagmire, stupid!" had better be pretty confident that that won't pay off for him, too.

One of the best examples of George W's farsightedness is a strange report he commissioned privately when his dad was in the White House. Called "All The Presidents' Children", it was an unsparing examination of the offspring of America's leaders. For example, of John Adams's sons, one became president but two others degenerated into alcoholics. By that measure, the Bush brood are batting better than average: the surviving daughter, Doro, is married to a Democrat; Marvin, deciding he couldn't stand the phoniness of politics, is a venture capitalist; of the three brothers with political ambitions, George is President and Jeb, as chief executive of a key state, would be ideally placed for a White House run himself, were it not that three Bush presidents in 20 years might be more than citizens of any self-respecting republic would be willing to entertain.

And then there's Neil. He doesn't matter now. Toppling Saddam was, explicitly, a repudiation by one Bush president of the policies of another and, subconsciously, of his brother, the wannabe crony to Gulf emirs, Saudi princes and Chinese Communists. George W Bush has proved that, politically, he's not his father's son, and, temperamentally, he's not his brother's brother.

spectator.co.uk



To: KonKilo who wrote (18215)12/6/2003 11:32:53 AM
From: LindyBill  Respond to of 793658
 
More economic predictions, this from "The Financial Times." China sells us what we want for promises to pay sometime.
Lindybill@headhurt.com


Europe's challenge

Published: December 6 2003 4:00 | Last Updated: December 6 2003 4:00

Inch by inch, the dollar is losing ground against the euro. The latter is now worth $1.21 compared with the low of July 2001, when the single currency was worth just 84 cents. Currency traders have had a change of heart from the late-1990s, when they equated economic with currency strength. Back then, that meant a preference for the dollar, and the booming US economy, over the currencies of the pedestrian eurozone and moribund Japan.

After the brief recession of 2001, the US economy now looks as strong as ever. Although the non-farm payroll growth announced yesterday was a little disappointing, third-quarter growth in gross domestic product was a remarkable annualised 8.2 per cent. Consensus forecasts for 2004 see the US growing 4.2 per cent, compared with just 2 per cent for Japan and 1.8 per cent for the eurozone.

But this growth superiority is no longer doing the dollar any good. Instead, investors are focused on the US's ever-widening current account deficit: a shortfall that requires $1.5bn a day of foreign capital to finance it. Those investors are unlikely to be attracted by US yields; short-term interest rates are just 1 per cent (and negative in real terms) and the US 10-year Treasury bond yields a few basis points less than its German equivalent.

And once a currency slide begins, the incentives to hold it rapidly reduce. For a European investor, this year's 21.5 per cent rise in the US equity market translates into just a 5.6 per cent gain in euro terms, 25 percentage points behind the return from the German market.

Fortunately for the US, there are still some willing financiers of its current account deficit: the Asian central banks. They are keen to keep their currencies steady against the dollar so as to give their exporters a competitive boost. US demand keeps their factories busy. So they are happy to act rather like bourgeois merchants supplying the Victorian aristocracy - exchanging their goods for eventual promises to pay. At some stage, after their holdings of Treasury bonds have fallen sharply in value, the deal may start to pall but that stage may be years away.

The Asian reluctance to let currencies appreciate against the dollar puts more of the adjustment burden on the eurozone and on peripheral currencies such as sterling and the Australian dollar. In theory, that should allow the European Central Bank to cut interest rates. Such a move would head off the deflationary impact of a rising euro and play its part in rebalancing the global economy, reducing dependence on US domestic demand.

In practice, however, the ECB may be unwilling to play this role. It is already aggrieved at the failure of France and Germany to stick to the deficit terms of the stability and growth pact. And it seems to feel that the US current account deficit, being the result of US profligacy, is not Europe's problem to deal with.

For the moment, the boom in global trade is pulling the eurozone out of the mini-slump seen in the first half of the year. Export volumes are so strong that it matters little that European exporters are less competitive.

But it is not difficult to see where this delicate balancing act could go wrong. The Chinese economy could overheat, slowing the growth in global trade. Private investor reluctance to own US assets could push up Treasury bond yields, thereby applying the brakes to the US recovery. Faced with a rising currency and a slowing global economy, Europe could be caught in a very nasty squeeze.





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To: KonKilo who wrote (18215)12/8/2003 2:23:58 AM
From: LindyBill  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 793658
 
If you know who this man is, his viewpoint becomes understandable.

December 7, 2003
OP-ED CONTRIBUTOR
A Million Miles From the Green Zone to the Front Lines
By LUCIAN K. TRUSCOTT IV
Lucian K. Truscott IV, a 1969 graduate of West Point, is a novelist and screenwriter.
OSUL, Iraq

Maj. Gen. David H. Petraeus, commander of the Army's 101st Airborne Division, has a large office on the second floor of what was once Saddam Hussein's northernmost palace in Mosul. He's got a desk and some chairs and a G.I. cot in an ornate room with marble floors and a tent-like ceiling fashioned from a latticework of wooden beading. The palace is yet another of Saddam Hussein's many-columned, Mussolini-style monsters, faced with the dun-colored polished stone and multihued marble he favored. The entire division staff is billeted in two bedrooms upstairs and in a cavernous marble basement that appears to have been a sort of spa/bunker.

The other day I told General Petraeus about a young specialist fourth class I had met while waiting for a military flight out of Baghdad. The specialist was a college student from Iowa whose National Guard unit had been called up for the war. He had told me about a prolonged firefight that took place the week before, outside Camp Anaconda on the outskirts of the city of Balad, 40 miles from Baghdad.

"We began taking small arms fire about 8 a.m., from Abu Shakur, the village just north of the base camp's gate," the specialist told me. "Our guys responded with small arms and then mortars. Someone on patrol outside the wire got wounded, and they sent Bradley Fighting Vehicles out, and they hit the Bradleys pretty hard, and by 10 a.m., they were firing 155-millimeter howitzers, and attack helicopters were firing missiles into the village, and you could see tracers and smoke everywhere.

"I had just gotten off a night shift, and I was sitting outside my tent about 100 meters from the gate in my pajamas reading a book. Right near me, guys were doing laundry and standing in line for chow. I was sitting there thinking: `Have we had wars like this before? Shouldn't we drop everything and help? I mean, we were spectators! What kind of war is this, sir?' "

General Petraeus, who graduated from West Point in 1974, just in time to witness the ignominious end to the war in Vietnam, didn't say anything. But slowly, and it seemed, unconsciously, his head began to nod, and his mind seemed far, far away. It seemed clear he knew the answer: yes, specialist, we have had wars like this before.

Commanding generals have had lavishly appointed offices before, as well. My grandfather, Gen. Lucian K. Truscott Jr., occupied the Borghese Palace when his VI Corps swept into Rome in 1943. His aide kept a record of the meals prepared for him by his three Chinese cooks, while every day dozens — and on some days, hundreds — of his soldiers perished on the front lines at Anzio, only a few miles away from his villa on the beach.

So there may be nothing new about this war and the way we are fighting it — with troops on day and night patrols from base camps being hit by a nameless, faceless enemy they cannot see and whose language they do not speak. However, the disconnect between the marbled hallways of the Coalition Provisional Authority palaces in Baghdad and the grubby camp in central Mosul where I spent last week as a guest of Bravo Company, First Battalion, 502nd Infantry Regiment, is profound, and perhaps unprecedented.

An colonel in Baghdad (who will go nameless here for obvious reasons) told me just after I arrived that senior Army officers feel every order they receive is delivered with next November's election in mind, so there is little doubt at and near the top about who is really being used for what over here. The resentment in the ranks toward the civilian leadership in Baghdad and back in Washington is palpable. Another officer described the two camps, military and civilian, inhabiting the heavily fortified, gold-leafed presidential palace inside the so-called Green Zone in Baghdad, as "a divorced couple who won't leave the house."

Meanwhile in Mosul, the troops of Bravo Company bunker down amid smells of diesel fuel and burning trash and rotting vegetables and dishwater and human waste from open sewers running though the maze of stone and mud alleyways in the Old City across the street. Bravo Company's area of operations would be an assault on the senses even without the nightly rattle of AK-47 fire in the nearby streets, and the two rocket-propelled grenade rounds fired at the soldiers a couple of weeks ago.

It is difficult enough for the 120 or so men of Bravo Company to patrol their overcrowded sector of this city of maybe two million people and keep its streets safe and free of crime. But from the first day they arrived in Mosul, Bravo Company and the rest of the 101st Airborne Division were saddled with dozens of other missions, all of them distinctly nonmilitary, and most of them made necessary by the failure of civilian leaders in Washington and Baghdad to prepare for the occupation of Iraq.

The 101st entered Mosul on April 22 to find the city's businesses, civil ministries and utilities looted and its people rioting in the streets. By May 5, the soldiers had supervised elections for mayor and city council. On May 11, they oversaw the signing of harvest accords and the division of wheat profits among the region's frequently warring factions of Arabs, Kurds, Turkmen and Assyrians. On May 14, a company commander of Alpha Company, Third Battalion, 187th Infantry Regiment of the 101st re-opened the Syrian border for trade, and by May 18, soldiers had largely restored the flow of automobile gas and cooking propane, shortages of which had been causing riots.

Since that time, soldiers from the 101st have overseen tens of millions of dollars worth of reconstruction projects: drilling wells for villages that had never had their own water supply; rebuilding playgrounds and schools; repairing outdated and broken electrical systems; installing satellite equipment needed to get the regional phone system up and running; restoring the city's water works; repairing sewers and in some cases installing sewage systems in neighborhoods that had never had them; policing, cleaning and reorganizing the ancient marketplace in the Old City; setting up a de facto social security system to provide "retirement" pay to the 110,000 former Iraqi soldiers in the area; screening and, in most cases, putting back to work most of the former Baath Party members who fled their jobs at the beginning of the war.

So many civil projects were reported on at a recent battle update briefing I attended that staff officers sometimes sounded more like board members of a multinational corporation than the combat-hardened infantry soldiers they are.

Why were the soldiers of the 101st Airborne Division — who were trained to clean latrines but not to build them — given the daunting task of making the cities and villages of northern Iraq work again? Because when they were ordered 300 miles north of Baghdad after the city fell, there was no one else around to do it. Even today, seven months later, it is still largely the job of the soldiers in Bravo Company and the other units of the 101st to make the system work in Mosul and its outlying provinces.

The Coalition Provisional Authority nominally has the job of "rebuilding" Iraq — using $20 billion or so of the $78 billion that recently flew out of America's deficit-plagued coffers. But during the time the 101st has been in Mosul, three regional coalition authority directors have come and gone. Only recently, long after the people of Mosul elected their mayor and city council, was a civilian American governance official sent to the area. And, according to the division leadership, not a nickel of the $20 billion controlled by the provisional authority has reached them.

"First they want a planning contractor to come in here, and even that step takes weeks to get approved," one officer in Mosul complained of the civilian leadership. "The planners were up here for months doing assessments, and then more weeks go by because everything has to be approved by Baghdad. If we sat around waiting for the C.P.A. and its civilian contractors to do it, we still wouldn't have electricity and running water in Mosul, so we just took our own funds and our engineers and infantry muscle and did it ourselves. We didn't have the option of waiting on the guys in the Green Zone."

But the guys in the Green Zone seem to have plenty of time on their hands. The place is something to behold, surrounded on one side by the heavily patrolled Tigris River, and on the three others by a 15-foot-high concrete wall backed by several rows of concertina razor wire and a maze of lesser concrete barriers. There's only one way in and out, through a heavily fortified checkpoint near the Jumhiriya Bridge guarded by tanks and Bradley Fighting Vehicles from the First Armored Division and an invisible array of British commando teams. More tanks guard key intersections inside the walls, machine gun towers line the wide boulevards, snipers man firing positions atop palaces great and small.

In all, hundreds of uniformed soldiers and heavily armed civilian security guards stand watch all day, every day over a display of grim garishness that would have given Liberace nightmares. If you're curious about how your tax dollars are being spent in Baghdad, you should get one of the many colonels strolling about the Green Zone to take you on a tour of the rebuilt duck pond across the road from the marble and gold-leafed palace serving as headquarters of an Army brigade. As I went to sleep one night a couple of weeks ago in the Green Zone, listening to the gurgle of the duck pond fountain and the comforting roar of Black Hawk helicopters patrolling overhead, it occurred to me that it was the safest night I've spent in about 25 years.

Which was a blessing for me, but a curse on the war effort. The super-defended Green Zone is the biggest, most secure American base camp in Iraq, but there is little connection between the troops in the field and the bottomless pit of planners and deciders who live inside the palace. Soldiers from the 101st tell me that they waited months for the Bechtel Corporation to unleash its corporate might in northern Iraq. "Then one of the Bechtel truck convoys got ambushed on the way up here three weeks ago, and one of the security guys got wounded," an infantryman told me. "They abandoned their trucks on the spot and pulled out, and we haven't seen them since."

That event occurred in November, the deadliest month of the war for the 101st, which had more than 20 of its soldiers killed in guerrilla attacks. Not given the option of abandoning the job and pulling out when the bullets start flying, soldiers of the 101st have stepped up their defensive patrols to around 250 a day and undertaken an aggressive campaign of cordon and search missions aimed at enemy strongholds in central Mosul and the outlying villages to the south near the Syrian border. Incidents involving attacks on troops with small arms and improvised explosive devices have been cut from more than 20 a day to fewer than 10. And last week the division took 107 enemy prisoners in a series of attacks on enemy strongholds in its area.

Still, Mosul and the rest of northern Iraq — an enormous area stretching from the flat desert at the Syrian border on the southwest to the mountainous border with Iran on the northeast — is a very dangerous place. Three 101st soldiers have been killed since I arrived, two by small arms and one by mortars. Three weeks ago, 17 soldiers flying home for leave were killed when an attack with rocket-propelled grenades took down two Black Hawk helicopters.

"It's really not helpful when people down in Baghdad and politicians back in Washington refer to the `disorganized and ineffective' enemy we supposedly face," said one young officer, as we walked out of a battalion battle briefing that had been concerned largely with the tactics of an enemy force that is clearly well organized and very, very effective. After spending more than a week with the soldiers of Bravo Company, I know that they resent not only the inaccuracy of such statements, but the implication that soldiers facing a disorganized and ineffective enemy have an easy job.

No matter what you call this stage of the conflict in Iraq — the soldiers call it a guerrilla war while politicians back home often refer to it misleadingly and inaccurately as part of the amorphous "war on terror" — it is without a doubt a nasty, deadly war. And the people doing the fighting are soldiers, not the civilian employees of Kellogg, Brown & Root, or the officials of the Coalition Provisional Authority, or the visiting bigwigs from the Defense Department.

The troops in Bravo Company don't pay much attention to the rear-guard political wars being waged back in Washington, but they loved President Bush's quick visit to Baghdad on Thanksgiving. While it was clearly a political stunt, they were quick to credit the risks he took. I can confirm that flying in and out of Baghdad — even at night, when it's safest — is not for the faint of heart. A C-130 on approach takes a nervous, dodgy route, banking this way and that, gaining and losing altitude. Hanging onto one of those web-seats by only a seat belt (no shoulder harnesses), you're nearly upside down half the time — it would feel like the ultimate roller-coaster ride, except it's very much for real.

When Bravo Company troops roll out of the rack at 2 a.m. for street patrols, they walk the broad boulevards and narrow alleyways spread out as if they're walking a jungle trail — wheeling to the rear, sideways, back to the front; their eyes searching doorways, alleys, windows, rooftops, passing cars, even donkey carts — trying to keep one another alive for another day, another week, another month, whatever it takes to get home.

Meanwhile, two soldiers armed with M-4 carbines and fearsome M-249 Saws machine guns stand guard inside concrete and sandbag bunkers atop the Bravo Company camp's roof, while squads of soldiers patrol alleys with no names in Mosul's Old City, and everyone prays.



To: KonKilo who wrote (18215)12/9/2003 4:21:27 AM
From: LindyBill  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 793658
 
JEFF JARVIS BLOG

Keep the U.N. out of .com
: What I feared about U.N. involvement in the Internet is already coming to pass:

Paul Twomey, the president of the Internet's semi-official governing body, Icann, learned Friday night what it feels like to be an outsider.
Mr. Twomey, who had flown 20 hours from Vietnam to Geneva to observe a preparatory meeting for this week's United Nations' conference on Internet issues, ended up being escorted from the meeting room by guards. The officials running the meeting had suddenly decided to exclude outside observers.
Mr. Twomey's ejection may underscore the resentment of many members of the international community over the way the Internet is run and over United States ownership of many important Internet resources.
Well, tough noogies!

: Instead of worrying about America and the Internet -- since we made it happen, after all -- maybe the U.N. should worry instead about Iran censoring the Internet. No, instead, while they were ejecting a representative of an American company, the U.N. invited in a huge delegation of officials from Iran -- the same officials who are censoring the Internet.
Yes, the U.N. would be a fine organization to run the technology future of the world.
No f'ing way! They should pry the Internet out of our dead American hands.
buzzmachine.com



To: KonKilo who wrote (18215)12/28/2003 3:11:24 AM
From: LindyBill  Respond to of 793658
 
This article is so good I decided to post it here. I think most of us will end up seeing this film.

Civil War, Take 2
Hollywood Captured The Blood of Battle But Shrank Away From Slavery's Reality

By Bob Thompson
Washington Post Staff Writer
Wednesday, December 24, 2003; Page C01

CHARLOTTESVILLE

A movie theater seems an odd place to be seeking historical truth, and the three University of Virginia professors look just a shade uncomfortable with the enterprise. There they sit on this December night, holding microphones onstage in Newcomb Hall, facing an auditorium full of movie buffs who have come to check out the Virginia Film Festival's preview screening of "Cold Mountain." The security guards who patrolled the aisles to prevent illicit videotaping are gone by now. Their job was to safeguard the screen images of Nicole Kidman, Jude Law and Renee Zellweger, not the post-film analysis of Gary Gallagher, Edward Ayers and Stephen Cushman.

The professors' assignment is a harder one. They are to judge the historical accuracy of what they've just seen.

On its face, this task is absurd. Director Anthony Minghella's take on the Civil War era, after all, is a second-generation work of fiction, based as it is on novelist Charles Frazier's 1997 bestseller of the same name.

Yet if you want to understand the way Americans process their past, the analysis of such fictional "history" is a perfectly reasonable enterprise. For, as real historians know all too well, the Hollywood Version has more influence on what we believe than all their efforts combined.

"Cold Mountain," which opens in Washington tomorrow, tells the story of a wounded Confederate deserter named Inman (Law) who turns his back on what he has come to see as war's dehumanizing slaughter to trek hundreds of miles home to the mountains of North Carolina and to Ada (Kidman), the woman he loves but barely knows. Inman's journey is intercut with the story of Ada and Ruby (Zellweger), a tough-minded rural type who teaches her city-bred friend how to survive in a harsh landscape made harsher by war.

Frazier based Inman on an ancestor about whom little is known. Filling the gaps with a combination of research and imagination, he deliberately set out to create a kind of American Odyssey -- which makes the historical question seem even more dubious. Does anyone ask whether Homer is "accurate"?

But Gallagher, who is one of the most prominent students of Civil War, knows what he's up against here. "I think 'Gone With the Wind' has shaped what people think about the Civil War probably more than everything we've written put together, or put together and squared," he says. Nobody thinks this film will have that kind of impact, but it will surely have more than his own work or that of any other academic historian.

Before this night's discussion is over, Gallagher and his U-Va. colleagues will field questions about the film's take on slavery, on the role of Civil War women, and on the nature of home-front vigilantism in "our beloved South." Ed Ayers will respond in part by pointing out that Minghella's movie is structured more like a western than a true Civil War film. Yet the screen version of "Cold Mountain" -- unlike the book -- begins with a powerful depiction of an especially horrific battle that took place in 1864, during the siege of Petersburg. So it is hardly surprising that one questioner comes back to that as well.

"At the very beginning, when the Union army put all the explosives underground, was that an actual event?" he asks.

The answer is: Yes, but.

Yes, Union engineers did tunnel under the Confederate lines at Petersburg, and yes, they blew a big hole in them, and yes, the Union troops who tried to capitalize on this were pinned down and slaughtered in the enormous crater created by the explosion. Along with other historians who've had a chance to see "Cold Mountain," Gallagher thinks this sequence is one of the best evocations of Civil War combat ever put on film. But as he and these other historians are also quick to note, one of the keys to understanding the real Battle of the Crater is the heavy involvement of African American troops there and the bungling of their deployment by the Union high command.

And if you go looking for this story line, either in Frazier's book or in the hellish orange haze the filmmakers throw over their painstakingly re-created battlefield, you will look in vain.

Confederate Romania

We'll get back to those ill-starred black soldiers soon enough. But first, a couple of other facts to note about Minghella's battlefield:

For one thing, it's in Romania.

For another, the hundreds of extras hunkered down in Union and Confederate uniforms are not the usual enthusiastic Civil War reenactors. They're active-duty Romanian Army troops.

And, strange though it seems, this makes the Battle of the Crater seem more "real."

The decision to shoot "Cold Mountain" overseas was made largely for financial reasons, and because Minghella wanted countryside with the kind of unspoiled, 19th-century feel that's hard to find in North Carolina these days.

And why not? He "made it quite clear that he's not a Civil War buff or a historian," says Brian Pohanka, an Alexandria-based writer and historical consultant who was hired to help with the battle scenes. The British director, Pohanka says in a telephone interview, saw "Cold Mountain" less as a Civil War film than as "a personal drama" set against the backdrop of the war. Still, Minghella, who also wrote the screenplay, wanted to get as many things right as he could while making the fighting realistic enough to explain the deserter Inman's state of mind.

To this end, Pohanka enlisted two other military consultants, veteran reenactors John Bert and Michael Kraus, to help work with the Romanians. For weeks, they taught the soldiers to wear their uniforms, carry their weapons and perform tactical maneuvers in the manner of Union and Confederate troops.

These were "fresh fish," Pohanka recalls, just like raw Civil War recruits. What's more, unlike the often older and heavier American reenactors who tend to show up in such films as "Gettysburg" and "Gods and Generals," the Romanians were young and lean, with bad teeth and an overall hungry look that brought to mind the gaunt figures in Mathew Brady photographs. Watching them training in a muddy field one day, Bert thought: "Oh, my God, we're looking at something that in our country we haven't seen in 140 years."

Bert, Kraus and Pohanka -- along with historical painter and collector Don Troiani, who was hired to help with the Civil War uniforms and other material details -- all testify that the filmmakers worked hard to get things right. Troiani says they took his advice on perhaps 80 percent of the points he raised, "which is really good for the movies."

The consultants praise the way the uniforms, insignias and battle flags turned out, and the fact that the correct Union regiments, in the correct alignment, are shown advancing to the Crater. They marvel at the re-creation of the Confederate trenches and fortifications -- "we were like little kids going through that," Pohanka says -- though they were alarmed, at one point, to see so many flags flying over the earthworks that they looked like something out of a Renaissance Fair. (The filmmakers agreed to remove some.) And they generally laud the re-creation of what Kraus calls "one of the most vicious, senseless battles of the Civil War."

That said, there were problems they couldn't fix.

Take the guard towers that loom ominously over the Confederate lines like relics from the "Schindler's List" set. "If I had one cannon, my first shot is to knock that down," Kraus says. "I don't know where they got those." Apparently, the production designer felt the need for something on that scale to fill out the frame.

Or take the enormous siege guns the Confederates are shown manhandling into position. Couldn't happen, unless you were dealing with lightweight fiberglass reproductions, and besides, guns of that size would have been far behind the lines. "We said: 'Why?' They said, 'The little ones look like toys,' " Bert explains.

Some inauthenticities were corrected by the filmmakers themselves. Jay Tavare, who plays a Cherokee character in Inman's regiment, "wanted to fight Ninja style," Kraus says. "I heard Anthony say, 'Jay, you're not an action figure.' " But other flaws inevitably crept in. The time between the explosion and the Union attack, for example, was radically condensed for dramatic reasons. The Crater itself seemed to the consultants to be a little too deep and steep-walled.

There were those missing persons, too, of course.

Yes, you could see a black face or two in the swirl of fighting. But Pohanka says he'd have liked to see many more black troops involved.

The Larger Question

Back at the screening here, after the prolonged applause that greets the end of the film, the talk is less of uniforms and battlefields than of the larger historical landscape. Intense though it is, after all, the Crater sequence occupies only a few minutes of the 21/2-hour film. Most of "Cold Mountain" is devoted to Inman's temptations and bloody travails on his long walk home; to Ada and Ruby's attempt to work the land without male help; and to the depredations of the local posses known as the Home Guard.

The broad context for all this is what Ayers, a historian whose work has focused more on the home front than the battlefield, refers to as the "backwash" of the Civil War. And the first question from the audience goes straight to the believability of Minghella's period evocation: Were the members of the Home Guard really as brutal as the movie shows them to be?

The answer -- isn't it always, with historians? -- is complicated.

"The war in western North Carolina got very, very nasty," Gallagher says. But "it's overdrawn in this movie, I think." Home Guardsmen, whose mission included returning escaped slaves to their masters and sending deserters back to the rebel lines, mostly didn't go around "killing people indiscriminately and torturing women." Ayers agrees, adding that "Cold Mountain" seems to conflate the Home Guard with what people at the time called "bushwhackers": violent, opportunistic outlaws with no loyalty to either side.

But Columbia University historian Eric Foner, who has also previewed the film, doesn't fully agree. He would never call this or any other movie "accurate," Foner says. Yet he notes that there was considerable Union sentiment in western North Carolina and eastern Tennessee (a point not made in "Cold Mountain") and that the authorities there "did prey very violently" on those deemed insufficiently loyal to the South -- which helps explain the bitter conflicts that continued after the war. Thus he sees the film as "illuminating something real."

Next question: What about the way women are portrayed in "Cold Mountain"?

Let's deal with the frivolous part first. The one thing period experts seem to agree on is that even when Ada, Nicole Kidman's character, is leading a hardscrabble life, she looks far too good to be true -- especially when it comes to her distinctly non-period hair. Zellweger wins Most Believable Actress, hands down. Jude Law gets high marks for scruffiness as well.

A more serious topic is the movie's seeming determination to turn the "Gone With the Wind" stereotype of pro-war, pro-slavery Southern womanhood on its head. "When you watch this film you have a sense that there are no white women in the Confederacy who support the Confederate war effort," Gallagher says, but this is "a grotesque distortion." Ada is supposed to be a transplanted Charleston belle, raised in the heart of the slaveholding South, yet she's skeptical about the war from the beginning, and practically the first words out of her mouth establish her anti-slavery sentiments. "What's wrong with that picture?" the historian asks.

This brings the discussion around to what Ayers calls "the great central problem of all of American history -- race and slavery."

And how did the filmmakers do on that one?

"They ducked," he says.

The Whole Story

Yes, they ducked. They made slavery virtually invisible in the mountains of North Carolina, which it was not. They made all their major Southern characters sympathetic, or at the very least silent, on the issue. They put unlikely anti-slavery speeches into the mouths of minor Southern characters, such as the doctor in the hospital where Inman recovers, outside of which you see a tableau of cotton-picking slaves for, oh, 30 seconds or so.

But Gary Gallagher, for one, doesn't think any of this should come as a surprise.

"Americans are so uncomfortable with slavery," he says. "Slavery and race are the great bugaboos for us in terms of really coming to terms with our past. It's just so raw still." And to expect a commercial fiction film to confront raw truths that American culture as a whole prefers to avoid would be, well -- unrealistic.

Still, it's good to be aware of what history chooses to delete, even when it's the Hollywood kind. So if you're planning to see this lovingly crafted picture, which just got eight Golden Globe nominations and is generating an unusual amount of advance critical buzz -- and which does try, in many important ways, to present an "accurate" picture of the American past -- it might be just as well to understand what happened outside Petersburg on that awful July day in 1864.

What you need to know about the Union side of things is this: After the decision had been made to tunnel under the Confederate lines, a division of United States Colored Troops was carefully trained to lead the assault. Among other things, they were to attack to the left and right of the hole created by the explosion. "Nobody was supposed to go into it," says Chris Calkins, chief of interpretation at Petersburg National Battlefield, which will offer special walking tours of the Crater, beginning on Dec. 27.

But at the last minute, Calkins says, the Union commander decided to have untrained white troops lead the assault instead. Among the reasons given was the fear of political repercussions in the North if things went badly and the black troops were seen as being deliberately sent to be slaughtered. As it happened, however, they were thrown into the battle anyway, after the tired and badly led whites -- who had never been told that they were supposed to avoid the big hole -- had poured into it and been pinned down.

So they still ended up with the highest rate of casualties of any Union division in the fight. And meanwhile, a golden opportunity had been lost.

As for what you need to know about the other side: This was the first major battle in Virginia in which black units participated, and the Southern troops didn't like it. "The call went up and down the Confederate lines that there were black soldiers fighting here, come and kill one of them," Gallagher says.

Celebrated Civil War chronicler Shelby Foote was asked by the producers of "Cold Mountain" to read and comment on the screenplay, and he says he caught one serious inaccuracy in the Crater scene: a description of Union prisoners -- it wasn't clear if they were black or white -- being executed well after they had surrendered. This wouldn't have happened, Foote says, and the incident does not appear in the finished film.

But Foote joins Gallagher, Calkins and other historians in confirming that the Confederates at the Crater killed many black soldiers who were trying to surrender. "They were really furious," Foote says. "Every ounce of racism that was in them flared up."

It's not as if the filmmakers didn't know this when they chose the Battle of the Crater to kick off their epic tale. Kraus, the military adviser, tells of watching a scene being filmed in Romania in which a Confederate soldier, screaming racial epithets, shoots a wounded black man in cold blood. This didn't make the finished film either, and Kraus thinks he understands why. What he says applies to more than just one scene in one Hollywood movie: It echoes more than a century's worth of choices about how we Americans want our Civil War history refined.

"It was kind of over-the-top painful," Kraus says, "and it didn't fit into the story line."

© 2003 The Washington Post Company



To: KonKilo who wrote (18215)1/4/2004 12:18:41 AM
From: LindyBill  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 793658
 
THE ATOMIC CLUB New York Times
If the Bomb Is So Easy to Make, Why Don't More Nations Have It?

Gregg Easterbrook, a senior editor at The New Republic, is the author of "The Progress Paradox: How Life Gets Better and People Feel Worse," published by Random House.

LIBYA has pledged to dismantle its atomic weapons program. That is obviously good news, in addition to being a victory for George W. Bush's aggressive foreign policy. But what, exactly, is Col. Muammar el-Qaddafi giving up? Not much.

"Libya was in no position to obtain access to nuclear weapons in the foreseeable future," says a statement by the Federation of American Scientists, an independent group that tracks arms control issues. After visiting Libya last week, the director of the International Atomic Energy Agency, Mohamed ElBaradei, declared the country's program at "very much at an early stage." Libya may be closing down its nuclear program because it wasn't working anyway.

This points to an important reality about nuclear weapons: they are extremely difficult to make. Claims that bomb plans can be downloaded from the Internet, or that fissile material is easily obtained on the black market and slapped together into an ultimate weapon, seem little more than talk-radio jabber. Nations like Libya that have made determined attempts to obtain atomic munitions have not even come close.

Saddam Hussein, while leader of Iraq, spent billions of dollars and many years pursuing atomic weapons, without success. It now appears his nuclear program was put into limbo sometime during the 1990's, perhaps for the pragmatic reason that it wasn't working. Pakistan, which may have played a role in various other bomb efforts in the developing world, had hundreds of engineers working for decades to devise its atomic device. North Korea devoted a high percentage of national resources to decades' worth of research before, probably, it acquired an atomic bomb. Iran's nuclear program, which dates to the last shah, has been working on a weapon for a quarter century so far.

In Libya's case, beginning in the 1970's the government sought assistance of various kinds from Pakistan, China and the former Soviet Union. Soviet technicians helped Libya build a small research reactor at a place called Tajura. The Qaddafi regime later tried, unsuccessfully, to buy a large power-generation reactor from a Belgian company, possibly hoping it could be refitted for production of weapons material.

Last week The Wall Street Journal reported that American forces recently seized a shipload of centrifuge equipment bound for Libya. The seizure might have been a factor in Colonel Qaddafi's decision to abandon his pursuit of nuclear weapons - though Washington officials said that before the ship was seized, American intelligence agents had already quietly visited Libya, at Colonel Qaddafi's invitation, to inspect the sites that the country proposed to shutter.

Atomic bombs have proved difficult for countries like Libya to make for several reasons. The "enrichment" of uranium or plutonium to weapons-grade concentrations is a fantastically complex undertaking, involving reactors that cost billions of dollars or centrifuge facilities that are also costly and complicated. Atomic bomb engineering and fabrication involve extremely precise calculations, exotic materials and unusual specialized components that even enormous cost-is-no-object government programs in the United States and the old Soviet Union found hard to manufacture.

Attempts by developing nations to make an ultimate weapon have gone slowly even though they have concentrated on atomic bombs - the kind dropped on Japan in 1945 - rather than the far more powerful thermonuclear or hydrogen bomb, which have never been used, except in tests. (Making a hydrogen bomb involves even more complex calculations, precision manufacturing and rare substances, like the hydrogen isotope tritium. )

In 1979, a national controversy erupted when The Progressive magazine printed an article describing the hydrogen bomb's basic engineering principles. Commentators proclaimed that many nations and even individual terrorist cells would respond by building hydrogen bombs.

Yet since 1979, no nation has joined the hydrogen bomb club. After decades of work, India and Pakistan exploded only 1945-style atomic bombs. (Six years ago, India announced that it had conducted underground tests of a thermonuclear bomb, but analysts at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory concluded that only the 1945-style atomic part of the device actually detonated.)

Both the Israeli and the now decommissioned South African ultimate-weapon programs sought atomic, not hydrogent, bombs. The engineering, construction and manufacturing challenges of the hydrogen bomb are so great that even the United States, Britain, France, China and the former Soviet Union had great difficulties fabricating it.

North Korea now appears to have succeeded in making several atomic devices of the 1945 variety. It agreed last week to allow an unofficial United States delegation to visits nuclear weapons complex, at Yongbyon, so perhaps North Korea's progress will be known soon.

Atomic weapons of the 1945 type are horrible enough, so the international threat posed by North Korean weapons may turn out to exceed any threat posed by Mr. Hussein's Iraq. But it took North Korea decades to acquire an atomic threat, even under circumstances of total national fixation on weapons development, and total government contempt for the needs of its citizens.

Iran's nuclear program continues to grow more disturbing. The nation possesses a large Russian-designed reactor called Bushehr that is expected to become operational in about two years.

"Twelve to 15 months after the reactor goes into operation, it will contain roughly 60 bombs' worth of near-weapons-grade plutonium," the Nonproliferation Policy Education Center, a nonpartisan group in Washington, recently warned.

After news reports in 2003 asserted that Iran had secret nuclear installations in a place called Kolahdouz, International Atomic Energy Agency inspectors visited the location and found nothing worrisome. But last year, inspectors did find traces of highly enriched uranium at two Iranian nuclear sites, including a "pilot" enriching facility at Natanz.

Iran is known to be working on both centrifuges and lasers to enrich uranium, and has been cagey with the international agency about its importation and manufacture of some uranium byproducts related to weapons manufacturing. There seems to be a strong prospect that Iran will eventually have a bomb - but attained only after vast investments of money, time and technological skills.

Other nuclear proliferation dangers continue to mount around the world. Syria has tried to buy reactors from China and Argentina; currently, Russia is helping Syria build a small reactor that is officially for "research" purposes.

Algeria has a small reactor at a place called El Salam, and claims its purpose is to make isotopes for medical research. But the "medical" reactor is ringed by antiaircraft missiles, and the Federation of American Scientists said in a study that the El Salam site "has a theoretical capacity to produce from three to five kilograms of plutonium a year, approximately equivalent to one nuclear weapon."

It remains possible that some government or terrorist organization could assemble a crude atomic device that would explode with far less power than the Hiroshima bomb, but with more force than any conventional munitions. And "dirty bombs" - radioactive material scattered by conventional explosives - might be effective weapons of terror. Merely the word "radiation" could set off panic in a big city, regardless of whether a dirty bomb actually dispersed enough radiation to pose general danger.

For the moment, Libya's decision to abandon its fruitless atomic program serves as a reminder that the ultimate weapon is, thankfully, not easy to come by. Numerous governments have invested billions of dollars and years of effort in trying to build atomic warheads, and have not been successful.

Copyright 2004 The New York Times Company



To: KonKilo who wrote (18215)1/5/2004 5:43:47 AM
From: LindyBill  Respond to of 793658
 
"American Thinker" is out with some excellent new Articles. I will be posting some of them here.

January 5th, 2004



The choice of anger

Thomas Lifson

The Democrats have built a mythology around the 2000 Presidential election, as Richard Baehr convincingly demonstrates in today's American Thinker. The energy generated by the resulting anger has been a prize sought by party officials and candidates alike. But like the thrill brought on by amphetamines or other nervous system stimulants, the short term surge comes at the cost of longer term damage to health.



Anger has become the fashionable political mood in America’s faculty lounges, big city newsrooms, and best-attended Democratic political events. Howard Dean, the former governor of one of America’s smallest states, has propelled his candidacy to a commanding position, financially and in the public opinion polls, based largely on his superior skill at articulating and embodying the fury which has gripped a substantial fraction of core Democrat activists.

Anger is a terrific motivator. Angry people contribute money, go to events, wear buttons, t-shirts, and funny hats, and readily slap bumper stickers on their Volvos, Beetles, mini-vans, and Lexuses. They enjoy meeting and spending time with others who are in tune with their particular emotional orientation. Some even find that sharing outrage can lead to sharing other passions, via computer dating services linked to the Dean campaign.



But anger has many drawbacks as the basis for an American political movement. Americans tend to favor optimism and a sunny disposition in their political leadership. Ours is a nation built on the pursuit of happiness as an inalienable right granted us by our Creator. More than two hundred years after this right was articulated in the Declaration of Independence, Ronald Reagan won overwhelming electoral support running on the slogan “Morning in America.”



Let the Balkan peoples define themselves by their ancient wrongs waiting to be avenged. Let clans like the Hatfields and McCoys in the hollows of West Virginia carry their grudges for generations. They are the curious exception to our general rule of concentrating on what we can become, rather than what our ancestors were. Americans take seriously their birthright, and would rather wipe the slate clean than nurture a collective grudge. Anger is like an acid which curdles the sweet mother’s milk of happiness, whose pursuit is so much a part of our national character.



Of course, there are some who do choose to define themselves by their ancestors’ tragedies, and whose vision of a world put right consists of extracting vengeance of some sort. Most prominently, the movement to collect reparations for slavery, payable 150 years later to the presumptive descendents of slaves, is being touted as a path to cosmic justice. But even its most fervent proponents do not foresee the public ever using the democratic process to enact a reparations law. Rather, litigation, giving the judiciary the opportunity to impose reparations on parties found somehow liable for the damages incurred in the past, is the primary tactic being employed.



Aside from its limited electoral appeal, anger is operationally a tricky, even dangerous force to harness. “Blind anger” is a common expression precisely because anger tends to render its carriers insensible to the complexities and subtleties of their environment. Particularly when the angry gather together, their anger feeds on itself and multiplies its force. It is precisely for this reason that mobs are recognized as dangerous.



Even if the shared anger is nonviolent, it still is capable of blinding the angry to the probable reactions of others. Convinced of their utter righteousness, seriously angry political movements readily overplay the cards they are dealt. Haters of Bill Clinton learned the hard way that the middle/majority of Americans could not be mobilized to share their passion, even when they held an ace, in the form of their enemy’s false testimony under oath.



Anger, held by the candidate and shared by his coterie and followers is the probable reason that Howard Dean has proven so gaffe-prone. He honestly does not seem to understand how most people will react to his assertion that Osama bin Laden is innocent until proven guilty, and nobody around him can caution him to watch his step. The rage which brings them together also precludes them from seeing its dangers. Of course, Dean also seems to have a problem with talking before thinking, and acting on impulse is another characteristic of the angry.



Anger requires an object. There must be someone or some group at which the anger is directed. By its nature, therefore, anger divides people. If the object of the anger is external to the nation, then anger can unite a people, as it has such nations as the Greeks, Koreans, and Poles. But if the object is internal to a nation, then schism, a rejection of the “we the people…” ethos, rears its head.



In George W. Bush, a large segment of the American intelligentsia has found an object wholly outside their framework of affection. People who obtained their status and income partially from the ability to speak articulately, and master a body of learning, find it troubling when one who gives no evidence of even caring about reading books and newspapers, or developing a large vocabulary of eloquently-spoken words, rises above them in status. It is an insult to the personal values they have embraced, and on whose rightness their own sense of self-worth depends.



Even worse, George W. Bush shows no shame or guilt in his character. Rather than embrace his insecurities, and embark on a lifelong path of searching for relief via the therapeutic talking cures so common to the urban educated classes, George W. Bush embraced Jesus Christ, and appears to have been done with his personal demons - no more drinking, no more rebellious streak, no more troubling doubts.



George W. Bush incarnates a rejection of the very values, beliefs, skills, style, and psychology by which large numbers of America’s educated class define themselves. Their self-concept is violated by his actions, his manner, his attitudes, and especially by his triumphs. If he is correct, then they are terribly, terribly wrong.



Charles Krauthammer, a psychiatrist by training and former practice, has coined the term “Bush Derangement Syndrome (BDS)” to be an affliction quite common today. He defines it as “the acute onset of paranoia in otherwise normal people in reaction to the policies, the presidency -- nay -- the very existence of George W. Bush.” Dr. Krauthammer is better situated than I to diagnose paranoia as an outcome of rage at George W. Bush. But it is consistent with the behavior of other groups which have been animated by anger.



Paranoia is rarely the basis for successful political action. Reading far too much into the actions of their opponents, the paranoiacs dissipate their resources fighting unnecessary battles. Their readiness to assume others are against them creates enemies where neutrals or even friendlies are present. Paranoia is quite simply dysfunctional.



Should the Democrats nominate the angry Dr. Dean, they will find it very difficult to extricate themselves from the problem they will be creating for themselves. A crushing defeat may not only be likely, it may be beneficial in the long term.

americanthinker.com



To: KonKilo who wrote (18215)1/8/2004 12:17:50 AM
From: LindyBill  Respond to of 793658
 
"Donkey Rising" Blog

Clark on the Move
No question about it, Wes Clark's campaign is starting to get some traction. First, he's moved past John Kerry into second place in the latest ARG New Hampshire tracking poll. Since December 26-28, Kerry has lost 6 points and Clark has gained 4, resulting in the switch in their relative positions.

And then the latest Gallup national poll has Clark closing the gap with Dean dramatically among Democrats and Democratic leaners. Right now, Dean is ahead of Clark by just 24 percent to 20 percent (and this is the first time Clark has been in the 20's since October 6-8). As recently as December 11-14, Dean was ahead of Clark by 21 points, 31 percent to 10 percent--so Clark has doubled his support in the last three weeks, while Dean has lost a quarter of his. And this last poll was taken before Clark's attractive tax plan was released and therefore does not reflect any boost he may be receiving from that announcement.

Not too shabby. A second place finish in New Hampshire and some victories on February 3 and he's off to the races.

In light of his progress, this seems a good time to review DR's November 1 recommendations on "How Clark Could Win the Nomination". How's he doing?

1. Work the Electability Angle. Check and double check, with the release of his tax plan.

2. Break Through in the South. That does indeed seem to be his plan and he appears to be in a good position to do so.

3. Go for the Noncollege Crowd. We lack good data here, but DR's sense is that Clark's support, especially relative to Dean, is drawn disproportionately from this group.

4. Go for independents and Republicans. We really lack good data here, but Clark is, in DR's view, positioning himself well to receive support from this not-insignificant bloc of Democratic primrary voters.

5. Work the Arithmetic. In terms of superdelegates, he isn't doing terribly well at this point. But, if Matthew Yglesias is right and superdelegates tend to follow the political winds, perhaps the time is now right for Clark to start lining up additional support from these quarters.

So far then, Clark seems to more-or-less be on DR's wavelength in terms of how he's conducting his campaign. Good luck to him. Wish, though, he had another signature issue besides his tax plan on the domestic front that could help wash away that "laundry list" feel one often gets from his domestic pronouncements.
emergingdemocraticmajorityweblog.com



To: KonKilo who wrote (18215)1/8/2004 8:30:03 AM
From: LindyBill  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 793658
 
Democrat's tap dance on religion is 'playing with fire'

January 8, 2004

BY ROBERT NOVAK SUN-TIMES COLUMNIST

When six opponents gathered at public broadcasting studios outside Des Moines last Sunday for yet another debate, they searched for some way to slow Howard Dean's presidential express. Two candidates blistered the Democratic front-runner for advocating across-the-board tax increases, but no adversary dared bring up Dean's mixture of religion and politics.

However, one of the three news media questioners, National Public Radio's Michele Norris, raised Dean's new promise to talk about God and Jesus in the South. ''In the Northeast,'' Dean replied, ''we do not talk openly about religion.'' However, ''in the South, people do integrate religion openly'' and so he would talk about it there. Dean then warned: ''I think any columnist who questions my belief is over the line.'' In short, don't delve into something I brought up. Nobody during the two-hour national television presentation probed what Dean really thinks about God.

That may be why commentators Sunday night declared the former Vermont governor was ''unscathed'' by the debate. Disagreeing, the adviser to another candidate told me: ''I thought he was seriously scathed.'' Scathing Dean, he said, was his own decision to play the Jesus card during coming intra-party tests in South Carolina and Oklahoma. This critic and like-minded Democrats are unwilling to permit use of their names, only privately criticizing the front-runner about his religious perambulations.

Brought up in his father's Episcopal faith (his mother was Catholic), he married a fellow physician who is Jewish. His children were raised Jewish though they and their mother hardly ever attend services now. Dean himself moved from Episcopalian to Congregationalist ''because I had a big fight with a local Episcopal church about 25 years ago over the bike path.'' He does not hesitate to reveal this information or to declare that he seldom goes to church.

This fits the highly secular profile of Democrats and particularly Democrats who vote in primary elections. One reason for the surprisingly poor standing of Sen. Joseph Lieberman is that, in the words of critics inside the party, ''he wears his religion on his sleeve.'' In contrast, reporters who followed Dean on the campaign trail recently observed that they never had seen so secular a presidential candidate, one who never mentioned God and certainly not Christ.

At that point, Dean declared he was about to change and would bare his religious thoughts as primary campaigns moved to the South and Southwest. He now professed to pray daily and declared he had read the Bible from cover to cover. When reporters asked his favorite book of the New Testament, he named Job, which in fact is in the Old Testament and portrays an unforgiving Old Testament deity. Dean returned to reporters, confessing a slight error. When they persisted in asking his favorite part of the New Testament, he prudently answered: ''Anything in the Gospels.''

Just how to handle this latest Dean peculiarity has puzzled Democrats, friends as well as foes. One veteran political operative who had softened his opposition to Dean and was on the verge of embracing him told me he thinks the doctor ''is playing with fire.'' For secular Democrats, assuming a false facade may be more damaging than genuine religiosity. Nevertheless, any damage to Dean probably will be self-inflicted because even his presidential opponents are wary about wandering onto this dangerous ground.

However, Lieberman and Sen. John Kerry showed no hesitation Sunday attacking Dean's proposal to roll back the entire Bush tax cut, which would increase rates for everyone who pays federal income taxes. ''There was no middle-class tax cut,'' Dean insisted in the Iowa debate. The normally soft-spoken Lieberman jumped in like an avenging angel: ''I don't know which is worse -- that he wants to repeal the tax cuts, or that he won't admit that they ever existed.''

The Heritage Foundation's analysts show the Dean repeal would mean a 74.2 percent tax increase for families with adjusted gross income between $10,000 and $20,000 and a 44.9 percent boost for $20,000 to $30,000. Incomes over $500,000 would face a 4.4 percent tax increase. It is dangerous for Democrats to follow Howard Dean here, but perhaps less so than where he may be heading on religion.

www.suntimes.com
Back to regular view
suntimes.com



To: KonKilo who wrote (18215)1/13/2004 4:04:22 AM
From: LindyBill  Respond to of 793658
 
Angry White Man
For black voters, Dean is the un-Clinton.

BY JASON L. RILEY
Mr. Riley is a senior editorial page writer at the Journal.

Unfortunate as it is true, Democrats don't battle Republicans for the black vote. They battle apathy. Blacks vote Democrat or stay home. Which prompts two questions: Will Howard Dean, the third-generation Yalie from Vermont by way of Park Avenue, have a problem ginning up enough black support if he wins the Democratic nomination for president?
And does it matter?

Such questions would have seemed silly four years ago. Al Gore won nine of every 10 black votes in 2000, which was even better than Bill Clinton's 84% in 1996. But both men were Southerners, and Mr. Clinton in particular displayed a personal comfort with blacks unmatched by any Oval Office resident in history. The former president may not have had much to offer besides government largesse, but to watch him address a black congregation or an NAACP convention was to see a man totally at ease.

Mr. Dean's comportment, suffice it to say, is pretty much what Chris Rock has in mind when he's impersonating a white stiff. And his brief courtship of the Confederate flag voting bloc betrayed a certain clumsiness on racial matters that he's yet to live down. Not that the temperamental ex-governor isn't trying. It's just that his attempts thus far to win credibility in the 'hood have been awkward and crude. The Dean camp, for example, likes to point out that as a Yale undergrad the candidate requested black roommates. This sort of "some of my best friends in college were black" argument is only slightly less insulting than if Mr. Dean were to inform us that his rapport with black folks derives from having had a black housekeeper while growing up.

In Sunday's debate, Al Sharpton, who mau-maus whites for a living and never misses an opportunity to needle the front-runner on race, told Mr. Dean acerbically, "It seems as though you discovered blacks and browns during this campaign." Given Mr. Dean's very recent discovery of openly religious Americans, who knows? Maybe black America is another recent discovery and Mr. Sharpton is on to something. In any case, the Democratic Party has long known the importance of the black vote, which is one reason Republicans are much more excited than many Democrats about a Dean nomination.

Democrats are increasingly dependent on the black electorate because they've been steadily losing favor with moderate blue-collar whites--especially white men. White flight from the party began to manifest itself in the presidential elections of 1968 and 1972, but it was more acutely felt in Walter Mondale and Michael Dukakis's spectacularly unsuccessful bids for president in 1984 and 1988.
Bill Clinton couldn't reverse this trend but did manage to slow it down. He and other New Democrats found a way to hold on to enough white voters in the South and the industrial Midwest to win general elections. The 1990s were spent nudging a reluctant party to the political center--welfare reform, capital gains tax cuts, and Nafta--without alienating urban centers. In 2000, however, Al Gore lost too much white support to sustain this delicate coalition. George W. Bush beat him by 12 points among whites generally and by 24 points among white men. Mr. Bush won states--like Arkansas, Tennessee and West Virginia--that his opponent badly needed. And what's even more troublesome for the next Democratic nominee is the knowledge that Mr. Gore's loss occurred under conditions vastly more favorable than those which the party will face 10 months from now.

"The fact is," says Michael Barone, author of The Almanac of American Politics, "Gore won 48% of the vote as the candidate of the incumbent party in a time of apparent peace and apparent prosperity. That is not the posture from which Democrats are running today."

If Democrats want to have a chance in November, they'll have to reproduce Mr. Gore's numbers and then some. Which means a Candidate Dean, who polls strongest among Northern, secular, white liberals with college degrees, would need to do at least as well as Mr. Gore among blacks, who tend to be poorer, less educated, more religious and from the South. Mr. Dean's close association with same-sex civil unions--thanks to a controversial bill he signed into law as governor--also won't endear him to culturally conservative blacks, who frown on homosexuality and oppose gay marriage by 2-to-1.

Charlie Rangel, the Harlem Democrat, says none of that matters. He insists--and in a tone that suggests he really believes unshakable racial fealty to one party in a two-party system is a good thing--that blacks will turn out in high numbers for whichever candidate has the (D) after his name. "Blacks will never forget that Bush stole the election in 2000," says Mr. Rangel, who's supporting Wesley Clark for the nomination because he thinks the retired general stands a better chance against Mr. Bush.

But other, less liberal, observers aren't so sure that blacks--and enough white moderates--are currently poised to support Mr. Dean and his tax-raising, antiwar positions in the numbers he needs to become the first Northern Democratic president since JFK. "For a Democrat to win," says Al From of the centrist Democratic Leadership Council, "he'll have to have a heavy black vote, but he also has to go beyond that because the black vote is only 10% of the total vote." Assuming Mr. Dean gets Clinton-Gore numbers among blacks, he says, "he still gets killed in the outer suburbs among swing voters."
If the problem for Democrats is the lack of a center-left coalition à la Bill Clinton, Howard Dean is hardly the answer. "You can't win on anger," says Mr. From. "It's not a very good glue for a political party. If it disappears, there's nothing to hold you together."

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