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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Spekulatius who wrote (18097)	12/3/2003 12:53:02 PM
From: Paul Senior	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 78634

Spekulatius, thx. I'll consider GSF. I'm looking too at LSS and NSS. finance.yahoo.com I welcome opinions about any of these three.

To: Spekulatius who wrote (18097)	12/18/2003 3:41:34 PM
From: Paul Senior	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 78634

Spekulatius, I've had XOM on my watch list for several months. Almost always, I am looking for relatively low entry a points. That is, I want to buy stocks when they are closer to yearly lows than to their 52-week high. XOM has been an exception, in that I have watched this stock with a view to establishing a small position ONLY after a breakout to new HIGH. My idea was that if this behemoth stock could move in such a fashion, then a large contingent of institutional investors must have come to the belief (rightly or wrongly)that oil is going higher or will stay high, and that these institutions must believe that conservative, boring XOM has a good possibility of being a beneficiary of that. I will bet then that this move in XOM will continue for a while, since if I'm right in why the stock might be at new highs, I might be right that this positive forward view of XOM's prospects will prevail for a while, drawing more big investors into the stock. XOM seems, if I am correct, to be replacing its depleting assets. If so, then XOM is growing its assets (book value) and its financial resources. So seeing how XOM has traded the past few years might be a reasonable way to see where XOM might again trade in good times. I'll guess if the current upswing in the stock continues, there might not be that much capital gain to extract - maybe five or six points. OTOH, if things go awry, there's also not much the stock would drop (maybe). Here's a five-year chart: finance.yahoo.com I've seen some fund managers recommend this stock recently. Here's one, for example: moneycentral.msn.com