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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: William H Huebl who wrote (67645)	12/1/2003 1:16:43 PM
From: Real Man	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 94695

I think things should start rolling over, but then again, with longer term moves, you never know the timing. Stocks are rolling over, longer term, or so it seems.

To: William H Huebl who wrote (67645)	12/1/2003 2:34:58 PM
From: Real Man	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 94695

Well... The key for me is still bonds. Rates can't penetrate the resistance, yet. Once they do, we may get a BK. Of course, both are Fed-induced. Now the housing market is already topped out, but the bond folks keep buying bonds. Why are they doing so, with weak dollar? Carry trade. Shorting short term, getting long long term bonds. 3-4% may well be worth it. If you do it with all the 1000:1 leverage available in derivatives, you get out a lot of $$$.... And the Fed indicated they will keep short-term rates low for a while - a clear signal to go out and borrow! But you don't want to be in bonds when it pops. You don't want to be in stocks either. -ng- Of course, foreign bond selling may trigger more selling any moment now. But they need to overpower the happy credit bubble crowd.