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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: ild who wrote (2776)	12/1/2003 3:54:47 PM
From: russwinter	Respond to of 110194

Reuters NYMEX Jan natgas spikes 7 percent on Northeast cold Monday December 1, 3:39 pm ET NEW YORK, Dec 1 (Reuters) - NYMEX Henry Hub gas futures rallied sharply on Monday, driven first by some cold Northeast weather this week, then by a flood of technical buying and short covering after an early break of resistance, trade sources said. January rallied 35.8 cents, or 7 percent, to close at $5.283 per million British thermal units after trading between $5.06 and $5.38. February settled 31.6 cents higher at $5.278. Other months ended up 3.8 to 26.1 cents. "The (cold) weather was the initial catalyst (for the buying), but it was more technical. We hit a lot of buy stops above $5 (on the open) and then in the $5.20s," said one New York-based trader, adding a lagging cash, some 30 cents below the screen, and a milder 6-10 day outlook tempered the bulls. Traders said chilly weather in the Northeast and Midwest this week boosted heating demand and helped firm the early cash, but most agreed long-term bearish fundamentals like high stocks could limit further buying, particularly if the season's first arctic blast is not sustained. Last week's EIA storage report showed that total U.S. gas stocks of 3.154 tcf had climbed to 107 bcf, or 3.5 percent, above last year and 147 bcf, or 5 percent, above the five-year average. Withdrawal estimates for Thursday's weekly EIA storage report range from 10 bcf to 50 bcf. For the same week last year, stocks fell 91 bcf. On average over the last 5 years, inventories have lost about 29 bcf this week. In terms of heating degree days (HDDs), the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) said last week's tally of 144 was 49 colder than the prior week but 5 warmer than normal and 19 warmer than the same week in 2002. Last November, more than 190 bcf was pulled from storage, leaving stocks at about 2.9 tcf at the beginning of December. So far, data from this November show that stocks have declined just 1 bcf. Inventories remain well above the 3 tcf "comfort" level considered necessary to meet normal winter heating needs, and most analysts estimate there will still be 3.1 tcf in the ground on Dec. 1, a huge cushion for the heating season. NOAA said it expected 162 HDDs this week, or 1 warmer than normal and 36 warmer than the same week in 2002. With January resistance at $5.20 breached Monday, chart traders pegged next resistance at the November high of $5.42 and then at $5.52. January support was seen at last week's low of $4.82 and then at recent spot chart lows in the $4.39-4.40 area. Private forecaster Meteorlogix expects Northeast and Mid-Atlantic temperatures this week to mostly range from normal to slightly below normal, while the Midwest, Texas and the West will see mostly above seasonal readings for the next five days. The National Weather Service 6-10 day outlook for Dec. 6-10 released Monday calls for normal or above normal temperatures for most of the nation, except in parts of the Southeast where below seasonal readings are expected. In the cash Monday, Henry Hub swing quotes on average climbed 16 cents to about $5.02. Swing gas on Transco at the New York city gate surged a dollar to $6.47 on colder weather this week, while Chicago was 23 cents higher at $5.10. The NYMEX 12-month Henry Hub strip gained 16.3 cents to finish at $4.895. NYMEX total estimated Henry Hub volumes were not available at 3:30 p.m. Henry Hub open interest on Nov. 26 fell 1,982 lots to 336,729.

To: ild who wrote (2776)	12/1/2003 9:54:31 PM
From: yard_man	Respond to of 110194

Thread question: question for statisticians or chartists or contrary investor fans -- last weeks comments featured an overlay of JGB yields from 1990-1996 with US treasury yields to date ... I am intersted in that last spike up in the JGB -- > here's what I'd like to know -- what was the Nikkei doing during the initial spike up there and the flat top and the return to new lows in yields. Any place we can chart that and overlay them would be super ... thanks.