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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: AC Flyer who wrote (42316)	12/1/2003 9:23:04 PM
From: elmatador	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

Can I answer for Jay: <<timing of the onset of your predicted imminent US economic bust>> The bust is already a fait accompli. It is just being masked by a barrage of "good" news crafted to boost Bush's chances to be re-elected. As we know his father won the war but lost the election due to poor economic performance. Presidential candidates are like that the world over: Dam the country, we just want the power!

To: AC Flyer who wrote (42316)	12/3/2003 8:57:18 AM
From: TobagoJack	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 74559

Hello ACF Mike, <<What's your current thinking on the timing of the onset of your predicted imminent US economic bust?>> I believe: (a) The bust is inevitable because the bubble happened, and the subsequent government interventions have engendered additional bubbles, poisoning the pool of funding, and causing deluge here and then mudslide there; (b) The bust will not be limited to the US but will be global, because what has been poisoned is the monetary system itself; (c) The officialdom can hold the bust at bay for quite some time, creating a mess here followed by a disaster there; (d) The longer the officialdom manage to forestall cleansing (bust), the worse the eventual bust will be; (e) I do not have any idea as to the timing of The Bust, because it should have happened already, can occur at anytime, and will definitely take place, in the fullness of time; (f) We can instead have many smaller busts that in totality get us to where we would have ended up (in losses) had The Bust been allowed to take place without interference; and (g) So we must be constantly vigilant and always be prepared. Chugs, Jay P.S. If I was forced to take a guess, I would guess October 2004, when folks all around the world come to the realization that the progression of collapse has not very much to do with elections nor electoral wishes, and that there are neither painless and easy 'solutions' nor difficult solutions. Chugs, Jay

To: AC Flyer who wrote (42316)	12/25/2004 4:33:27 AM
From: TobagoJack	Respond to of 74559

Hello ACF Mike, <<Just curious ...>> Here we are, just so many months after this post Message 19556748 . I had guessed at the timing only because you asked me to guess. You may claim that I am wrong about timing of the defining collapse, but let us not quibble, October certainly was not a good month for equity (low for the year) as the crowd stared ahead … they got their nerves steadied in November for no particularly valid reason, and soon enough will realize what must be ahead in 2005. Brian and you recommended these Message 20152260 holdings, and had anyone followed your clue, equally weighted, they would be up 17% in USD terms (not bad) and up 8% (as good) in Euro purchasing power. After inflation, 4%, after taxes, 3-ish, risk-adjusted, too small to matter. Had anyone followed Brian H’s lead, equally weighted, they would be down 9% (horrible) in USD terms, down 16% (disaster) in Euro dimension, or some number around there, close enough for government work. I will dispense with the inflation embarrassment (we must be generous in our heart) and tax treatment insults (why kick when the guy is down already). I hope Brian did not rely on his DD too much, for getting in tune with the Force is easier. Your hope that the gold would be trading lower rather than higher in 2004 is looking if-ish, but then we still have a few days to go. Perhaps in 2005 then. The year ahead? Let me close my eyes, put my right hand to my forehead, palm facing out, and see if I can detect the perturbation in the Force … worldmarket.blogspot.com Chugs, Jay